As the 2008 Presidential Election draws to a close, both candidates have distinctly different statuses as of today, October 17. This article will detail precisely where each candidate stands - both in individual battleground states and nationally - and analyze why each side is in its respective position.
National Popular Vote
Although the national popular vote does not play a factor in determining who is elected the next President of the United States, it is nevertheless the generally-accepted barometer as to which direction each candidate is moving with regards to public opinion. As of 10/17/08, the national poll average of major national polling firms as listed by conservative website Realclearpolitics.com is as follows:
RCP Average 10/09 - 10/16 49.5 - 42.7 Obama +6.8
From a sample of approximately 150 million voters, that spread translates to the following popular vote count if the election was held today and assuming third and fourth party candidates each receive 1% of the vote:
Obama 52.4% 78,600,000
McCain 45.6% 68,400,000
Barr 1% 1,500,000
Nader 1% 1,500,000
Result: Obama +10,200,000 votes
As you can see, even a 6.8% victory results in a popular vote landslide. However, the results get even more overwhelming when you analyze each candidate's position in individual states.
Electoral College
An astounding 43 of 50 states are already assigned "solid" or "likely" status for both McCain and Obama with a little more than two weeks left before Election Day. As of this moment, Realclearpolitics.com apportions these states as follows:
Obama: CA, OR, WA, CO, NM, MN, IA, WI, MI, VT, NH, PA, NY, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC
Total Electoral Votes: 286
McCain: ID, UT, AZ, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AK, AR, MS, AL, TN, KY, GA, SC
Total Electoral Votes: 158
In addition, RCP lists the following remaining seven states as "toss-ups":
NV, IN, MO, OH, FL, NC, WV
As of 10/17, These "toss-up" states are polling as follows:
NV Obama +3.0
OH Obama +3.2
FL Obama +4.8
MO Obama +2.5
NC Obama +1.2
WV McCain +1.5
IN McCain +3.8
When included in the map, these "toss-ups" expand the electoral votes as follows:
Obama 364
McCain 174
Those are the facts as the race stands today. Now, for the analysis:
McCain faces a dire reality as the 2008 Presidential Election winds down: He is fighting tooth-and-nail to hold states that he desperately needs to avoid an electoral vote landslide, let alone win the race.
If John McCain held every single state that George W. Bush won in 2004, he would win a total of 286 electoral votes in this election. It is a near-certainty that McCain will lose the 2004 Red states of IA and NM, where Obama is leading by double-digits. It is also becoming more likely that he will lose VA and CO, where changing demographics are making it more difficult for McCain to hold these crucial states.
Those who believe that, given more time before the election, McCain would overcome these deficits are missing the aggregate reality of this race. Time is not McCain's biggest enemy. McCain's troubles sit squarely within the internal factors that turned the electoral map upside down in the first place: money and ground games.
Barack Obama endured a long, grinding primary battle with one of the toughest and strongest political machines in the history of American politics in the form of Hillary Clinton. In order to pull off the miracle of victory over Clinton, Barack Obama organized a ground game that established strong presences in Red and Blue areas of both Democratic and Republican states across the nation. He understood that the key to victory in a primary that awards delegates in a proportional manner is maximizing gains in the states that you win - while at the same time minimizing losses in states you might lose. This allowed Obama to build a delegate lead that endured a ferocious fight by Senator Clinton to the end, but it also established a foundation for a ground game the likes of which has never been seen before.
As the general election began, it became clear that Obama's ability to rally grassroots supporters would not only assist him in registering and turning out supporters, but with fundraising as well. His decision to opt out of public funding has provided Obama with an enormous financial advantage that is allowing him to pump ads and staff into battleground states that McCain is unable to match. Fivethirtyeight.com, the premier election forecasting site in the country, frequently raves about Obama's ground game as seen first-hand by Nate Silver and his crew. He simultaneously questions the strength of McCain's ground game - even noting resistance on the part of McCain staffers to give interviews to Silver and provide access to campaign areas.
Ultimately, this election will be decided on factors already in place: The ability of each campaign to organize its ground game and translate that organization into turnout on Election Day. Nate Silver predicts the following odds for each candidate:
Obama 352.2, 94.7% win percentage
McCain 185.8, 5.3% win percentage
The fundamentals of each campaign have not and will not change between now and Election Day. Given that reality, it is hard to bet against Barack Obama to win the election on November 4.