Research 2000 for Daily KOs. 10/14-15. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/8-10 results)
Collins (R) 53 (57)
Allen (D) 40 (38)
Allen has been making incremental gains throughout the year, but he's pretty much run out of time. This is a crazy year were crazy thngs might happen, but absent a political miracle, Collins will survive.
Crazy, huh? If a year ago, you would've told me that ME-Sen was safe but GA-Sen, KY-Sen, and MS-Sen (B) were neck and neck, I would've never believed it. Perhaps this is testament to Collins' political skills, but I think it has more to do with Allen's timid campaign. The campaign has been so obsessed with Collins' popularity that it has refused to aggressively attack her record. And when you play defensively -- as a challenger -- you will lose 100 percent of the time. At this point, it feels as if Allen is already running for governor in 2010 than closing out this particular race.
On to better news, any notion Republicans may have had of picking off one of Maine's electoral votes is pretty much hopeless.
Overall
McCain (R) 38
Obama (D) 53
1st CD
McCain (R) 35
Obama (D) 58
2nd CD
McCain (R) 41
Obama (D) 52
Sure, the 2nd CD is a single-digit race, but Obama is over 50 percent [Update: I can't do simple arithmetic.]. This won't flip, and the RNC has already pulled out of Maine.
Full crosstabs below the fold.
MAINE POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Maine Poll was conducted from October 14 through October 15, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 287 (48%)
Women 313 (52%)
Democrats 204 (34%)
Republicans 162 (27%)
Independents/Other 234 (39%)
18-29 108 (18%)
30-44 197 (33%)
45-59 193 (32%)
60+ 102 (17%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Susan Collins? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 25% 34% 25% 11% 5%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 59% 36% 5%
MEN 58% 40% 2%
WOMEN 60% 32% 8%
DEMOCRATS 46% 51% 3%
REPUBLICANS 75% 19% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 59% 35% 6%
18-29 55% 42% 3%
30-44 66% 31% 3%
45-59 56% 36% 8%
60+ 59% 35% 6%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Allen? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 16% 37% 22% 20% 5%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 53% 42% 5%
MEN 49% 47% 4%
WOMEN 57% 37% 6%
DEMOCRATS 80% 17% 3%
REPUBLICANS 22% 73% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 42% 7%
18-29 56% 39% 5%
30-44 51% 45% 4%
45-59 52% 42% 6%
60+ 52% 42% 6%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Tom Allen the Democrat or Susan Collins the Republican?
COLLINS ALLEN UNDECIDED
ALL 53% 40% 7%
MEN 55% 36% 9%
WOMEN 51% 44% 5%
DEMOCRATS 32% 62% 6%
REPUBLICANS 81% 16% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 52% 37% 11%
18-29 49% 45% 6%
30-44 55% 38% 7%
45-59 52% 41% 7%
60+ 56% 36% 8%
DISRICT 1 48% 44% 8%
DISTRICT 2 58% 36% 6%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 55% 38% 3% 4%
MEN 51% 42% 4% 3%
WOMEN 59% 34% 2% 5%
DEMOCRATS 87% 6% 2% 5%
REPUBLICANS 11% 84% 3% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 34% 4% 4%
18-29 62% 34% 2% 2%
30-44 50% 42% 4% 4%
45-59 56% 38% 3% 3%
60+ 51% 39% 2% 8%
DISRICT 1 58% 35% 2% 5%
DISTRICT 2 52% 41% 4% 3%