Zogby just released his latest tracking poll: Obama leads 47.8% to 45.1%.
Yesterday, Obama led 48.3% to 44.4%.
BUT the internals clearly show why the poll is flawed.
Obama gets 88% of Democrats and McCain gets 90% of Republicans. Obama leads by 8% among independents. If the final results are anywhere near this, there is no way Obama loses the election.
This is not just wishful thinking or stubborn refusal to believe that Democrats might not outnumber Republicans at the polls. It's plain obvious by looking at the HUGE voter registration gains over the past four years. Those are hard data, and almost every single pollster out there has picked that up. Even Rasmussen has 40% Democrats 33% Republicans.
In any case, McCain needs to win lots more cross-over Republicans and win the independent vote. That Obama is winning by only 3% with those kind of party internals is laughable. Update: Using Rasmussen's party weighing on Zogby's internals should give you a 9% margin, I believe!
So to conclude: THERE IS A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE but THERE IS NO NEED TO PANIC (and waste time panicking) either.
And visit my blog too, at Campaign Diaries.
[Oh yes, to conclude, here is Zogby's explanation for McCain's improved performance:
McCain's strong performance at the Alfred E. Smith charity dinner in New York City Thursday, combined with his appearance on The Late Show with David Letterman Thursday night, may have had a positive effect.
Sure, undecided voters watched the Al Smith charity dinner speeches...]