I just wanted to put this down somewhere, so that I can see how close I was once Election Day comes and we all know the results.
McCain: (185)
Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arkansas - 6
Arizona - 10
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
North Dakota - 3
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 8
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3
Obama: (353)
California - 55
Colorado - 9
Connetticut - 7
Delaware - 3
Florida - 27
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
Nevada - 5
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
North Carolina - 15
Ohio - 20
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Virginia - 13
Washington - 11
Washington D.C. - 3
Wisconsin - 10
Explanation below the fold.
Alright, so that's basically, Obama takes all Kerry states and adds CO, FL, IA, NV, NM, NC and OH.
Sure North Carolina might seem like a long shot, but Bush took it in 2000 and 2004 by roughly 12.5 points each and right now Obama is actually polling ahead slightly. I've had a good feeling about NC all year.
This race has been fairly close all year until recently and all the pundits have been predicting it to stay close til the end. Most are saying he will take all Kerry states and add Colorado and Virginia for a close win. I've been predicting an Obama landslide for a few months now. Mainly because as accurate as the top-level pollsters are there are just some things they cannot account for. Such as Obama's voter registration drives, his impeccable ground campaign and voter turnout. Also, the African-American demographic and the youth vote are both extremely enthusiastic this year and both very pro-Obama. Turnout last election (2004) was around 60%. This year I think its going to be more like 75-80%, possibly higher. The more people that show up the better Obama does, mainly because his campaign has registered so many new voters. Especially in key states like NC, with a large African-American population (around 21%). I also think there is a problem with the polls, in which, they underrepresent the youth vote (18-30). A lot of pollsters only poll landlines and not cell phones. Due to the fact that a lot of young people only use cell phones, I believe Obama is shorted at least a point or two in the National polls. His ground game has a lot to do with his success in the primaries and so far in the general. He has massive campaign staffs and volunteers in traditionally red states where no Democrat has bothere to campaign in years. Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, etc.
The electoral map is going to change drastically compared to 2004 and 2000. Kerry and Gore looked for the easiest way to 270 votes and didn't worry about anything else. Obama has gone up and over that logic and spread his campaign out to a vast assortment of states, many of them red. Because of enthusiasm, high turnout and the public's dissatisfaction with George Bush will, this year, give Obama a massive victory and not just a close win.