Does McCain think he can win Maine? No, he think he can get 1 of Maine`s 4 EV...
Obama has several ways to victory but the most important thing for him is to keep PA and MI. That seems very likely at this point and I think McCain will withdraw from PA soon. I don`t think McCain is going for WI or MN either, its just a bluff.
But, he can win NH. NH is the only Kerry-state, where McCain has shown some kind of strength during Obama`s lates climb in the polls. Obama leads in most of them, but McCain is ahead in a couple. Most polls are tight.
If you look at RCP (McCain-fans!), Obama has a 1,3% lead in NH.
He is up by 7,9 in PA, 7 in MI, 5 in WI and 4,6 in MN. McCain is much closer in NH and NH is in play. MN, WI, PA and MI is not.
If Obama lose NH, he gets 248 EV from the rest of the "kerry-states". McCain is at 290 EV.
Obama has a solid lead in IA (9,5), thats 7 EV. Obama at 255, McCain at 283. Obama has a clear lead in NM (6), thats 260 for Obama and 278 for McCain. Colorado is leaning strongly to Obama, he has a 5 point lead if you look at RCP. CO has 9 EV, so thats 269 for Obama and 269 for McCain. Its a tie.
So what do you do? McCain is looking to Maine as a last opportunity if he gets NH, since Obama will most likely get CO, NM and IA. Obama will win with a tie.
I`m not sure if this is McCains main strategy at this point, but it does show a lot of weakness. He has spent A LOT of money and effort in MI, "giving" it to Obama is risky and shows us that Obama has a money advantage. It also give Obama an opportunity to reduce spending a bit in MI and focus on closer states like NC or MO.
If the Maine strategy is his number 1, he is taking a major gamble, since he will need to keep EVERY close Bush-state, that includes NC, FL, OH, NV, VA, MO and IN. He cannot afford to lose any of these states. Obama is ahead in VA, NC, FL, OH and NV according to RCP. McCain has a 2% lead in both MO and IN.
I think McCain is taking a huge risk with this strategy and I don`t think he will win any of Maine`s 4 EV. I think this shows how bad a position McCain is in and pulling out of MI could mean that RNC is refusing to spend as much on the presidential race as McCain would like....