I've been following the electoral college math, state polling, the strengths/weaknesses of the Obama organization and the trending of the election and I think I have figured out how the next 2 weeks will play out and which states are most important. In order, they are:
1. Pennsylvania
2. Virginia
3. Nevada
4. Florida
(I have been reading DK for close to 5 years and only recently registered. I can't fall asleep so I decided to write my first ever diary.)
Though McCain has been erratic, run a terrible campaign and is at risk of losing in a landslide, we have to give him the benefit of the doubt that he at least has some semblance of a plan as to how to win. Only by understanding their thinking can we best counter their strategy.
I am of the opinion that Obama currently has 253 electoral votes more or less in the bag. It is becoming clearer that, despite token efforts, McCain is giving up on 2004 red states Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. Abandoning hope in Colorado at first blush is a curious decision for the McCain campaign to make with most polls showing him only behind 5-7 points. However, from what I can gather, most Colorado voters are either very Republican or very Democrat. There just isn't a large of mass of independent/persuadable voters like in the midwest. So even this relatively small Obama lead is probably insurmountable. These voters aren't going to change their mind and Obama's superior organization will get them to the polls.
The Kerry states plus IA, NM and CO has always been the path of least resistance for Obama. So why do I only have him with 252 in the bag? Because for this strategy to work, Obama has to hold on to Pennsylvania and thus the reason that PA is the most important battleground this year. The polls in PA show Obama currently holding a 9-12 point lead. However, I think this lead is a bit more tenuous than that would suggest. First, there is no early voting so Obama can't leverage his superior ground game and take advantage of his current lead to bank a mass of votes. Second, unlike Colorado, PA voters seem way more fickle and liable to change their minds. In short, I think his support is a bit softer. Third, I think this is the state where we are likely to see McCain go very negative and dirty in the final week trying to scare voters and use race/Ayers/Wright/Acorn to try to squeak out a victory. I think it is unlikely to work and I put Obama as about a 4 to 1 favorite to win PA. If he does, that's 273 and the election is over. If McCain does dirty his way to the big upset, things get interesting.
If PA somehow falls through, in my opinion the second most likely path to 270 for Obama is the combination of Virginia and Nevada. I feel better about Virginia by the day. The polls are really starting to favor Obama. When I see him hitting 54% in a poll like Rasmussen this close to the election, I feel good. Especially since VA more than any other state has developed in recent years a great Democratic voter database and GOTV effort. Warner on the ballot helps as well. If Obama loses PA and wins VA, he is still a few EVs short (265) and just needs one small state to flip. I like the chances of Nevada flipping. The western states just seem more immune to the negative, racially charged attacks that we are likely to see than some of the other battlegrounds.
Lastly, I think that of the other battlegrounds, Florida is the most likely to go blue (with Missouri a close second). Obviously, Florida going blue would seal the election for Obama no matter what would happen in PA, VA, NC, OH, etc. I think the chaos in the Republican campaign down there and the backlash against Palin has really opened the door to Obama. He has sent his best organizers down there and I expect an extremely impressive GOTV effort and I think Obama is a slight favorite there.
Anyway, those are my thoughts on the current battlegrounds. I personally think that if things stay as they are or if there is a slight improvement for McCain the election is a landslide. However, worst case scenario,if McCain can pick up 3-4 points nationally somehow, many of these close red states (OH, MO, IN, ND, NC, etc.) may revert to red. McCain would then need to pull PA out of his ass somehow and then hope to also keep VA and FL in his column. That is the only realistic path he has to victory. I don't think he can do it, but we are going to have to fight the smears in PA to make sure. Agree? Disagree?