UPDATE: Been at work. Missed this as it was diaried already but spread the news. Now for what I am told is a 5th time. :) I used my diary for the day up now so might as well leave it up.... Right??
Camp McCain just received another devastating blow thanks to the polls. Pew Research has just released a new national poll that was in the field from the 16th – 19th so this will not have a Powell effect if there is one to come. Before I go further, here are the numbers,
Likely Voters
O: 53%
M: 39%
Registered Voters
O: 52% (50)
M: 38% (40)
Full Poll and Write-up
HUGE Sample Size of almost 2,600 people and the breakdown is favorable to Republicans and the AA numbers are a bit low. All in all a very good poll even with the formula.
This poll does get a full effect of a post debate bounce. Here is some of the Pew Write-Up
Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has steadily increased since mid-September, when the race was essentially even. Shortly after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26, Obama moved to a 49% to 42% lead; that margin inched up to 50% to 40% in a poll taken just after the second debate. Currently, Obama enjoys his widest margin yet over McCain among registered voters, at 52% to 38%. When the sample of voters is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 39%.
Obama’s strong showing in the current poll reflects greater confidence in the Democratic candidate personally. More voters see him as "well-qualified" and "down-to-earth" than did so a month ago. Obama also is inspiring more confidence on several key issues, including Iraq and terrorism, than he did before the debates. Most important, Obama now leads McCain as the candidate best able to improve economic conditions by a wider margin (53% to 32%).
It seems that Sarah Palin is a drag everywhere these days. I shouted it when she was picked "She is the biggest political mistake ever made," and I stand by that claim. Any of his other candidates would have been sitting better in the public and the Republican base would have come home no-matter what (or at least the part she is polling well with.) If McCain had run as the 2000 McCain I think the race would be tighter since he was viewed in higher regard than his party brand. Now, not so much.
In addition, Sarah Palin appears to be a continuing – if not an increasing – drag on the GOP ticket. Currently, 49% of voters express an unfavorable opinion of Palin, while 44% have a favorable view. In mid-September, favorable opinions of Palin outnumbered negative ones by 54% to 32%. Women, especially women under age 50, have become increasingly critical of Palin: 60% now express an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 36% in mid-September. Notably, opinions of Palin have a greater impact on voting intentions than do opinions of Joe Biden, Obama’s running mate.
Early Voting is a big Obama advantage.
The survey also finds that 31% of voters plan to vote before Election Day, or have already voted, compared with only 19% at this stage in 2004. Early voters lean heavily to Obama; 58% say they support Obama, compared with 34% for McCain.
McCain is hurting across the board and the Economy is driving the numbers. Also he’s seen as someone who has poor judgment which I would imagine is fueled in part to the Palin pick. I was also happy to see that this poll included a cell phone sample.
Obama’s gains notwithstanding, a widespread loss of confidence in McCain appears to be the most significant factor in the race at this point. Many more voters express doubts about McCain’s judgment than about Obama’s: 41% see McCain as "having poor judgment," while just 29% say that this trait describes Obama. Fewer voters also view McCain as inspiring than did so in mid-September (37% now, 43% then). By contrast, 71% of voters continue to think of Obama as inspiring.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 16-19 among 2,599 registered voters interviewed on landline phones and cell phones, finds that McCain’s age also has become more of an issue for voters. Roughly a third (34%) now says that McCain is too old to be president; in the Sept. 9-14 survey, just 23% said this. At this stage in the 1996 campaign, about as many voters (32%) said Republican candidate Bob Dole was too old to be president.
Keep up the work and let’s make sure these numbers hold because we can’t take anything for granted.