Both Chuck Todd and Howard Fineman this week have suggested that the race in Arizona is getting closer, and Obama might be targeting Arizona in the final push:
What do states like Georgia, South Carolina, North Dakota and even Arizona have in common?
They’re all reach states that the Obama campaign now believes could be in play.
Thanks in part to an astonishing $150 million take in September, the Democrat has his eyes on some unlikely prizes, including McCain’s own home turf.
Now one of the top local pollsters here (Cronkite-Eight)has a new election poll in the field this week (results anticipated next week), and it is believed to be close.
According to Arizona's local pollster, Bruce Merrill, expect a close race in Arizona:
While picking up a handful of Republicans in McCain's home state may not seem like much, longtime pollster Bruce Merrill expects to see real changes when his surveyors start making calls later this week.
"My guess is that if I took a poll today that McCain would be ahead, maybe, but very slightly," said Merrill, professor emeritus at Arizona State University's Cronkite School of Journalism. "I think it would be a very close race."
I like the sound of this. The race in Arizona as polled last month was as follows:
McCain had a 7 percentage-point lead over Obama in the last poll for KAET-TV (Channel 8) and the Cronkite school, released Sept. 30, compared with a 10-point spread a month earlier. About 16 percent were undecided.
Merrill predicts challenges in modeling the data for Arizona in the upcoming new poll:
So Merrill is rewriting his typical question - who will you probably vote for? - to capture those who've already voted. And he's figuring that only about 10 percent remain undecided - and most of them won't even vote.
At the same time, he's abandoning the "most likely voter" strategy so as not to miss some of the 40,000 Arizonans who registered Oct. 6, the last day to do so. Mostly likely voters are randomly selected among people who voted in at least two of the last three elections.
"You would miss a lot of young people and a lot of people who recently moved to the state," he said.
The cell phone issue has been underestimated, Merrill said.
Arizona's Secretary of State is predicting a record 80-85% turnout rate for this election, and early voting by mail, which has been happening the past couple of weeks has been brisk. As of last Wednesday, here were the early voting numbers:
As of Wednesday, 148,105 early ballots had been returned; 756,540 had been requested, she said.
Furthermore, the Arizona Republican party is desperate and in disarray:
Republican political consultant Kevin Demenna said Monday's event is a recognition of the "desperate" straits facing the GOP in Arizona this election, rather than any sort of newfound unity among the party's warring factions. In other words: The party is in real danger of losing the state House, Senate or both. Leading elected officials like Kyl and Shadegg know it. So, they're putting aside their differences with Pullen to raise some major cash for the state party in the waning days of the campaign.
There's a good chance Obama can squeak out a win in Arizona, and I believe 3 factors would need to occur:
- High turnout rate. The Secretary of State is predicting a record 80-85% turnout rate.
- Hispanic voters turnout and vote for Obama. National polls show that Hispanics overwhelmingly favor Obama over McCain, but they need to turn out in high rates in Arizona.
- Independents in Arizona break for Obama. Approximately, 1/3 of registered voters in Arizona are Independents. National polls show them favoring Obama at this time. It's unclear whether Independents in Arizona are mirroring the national trend, but I suspect they might be.
Anyway, we should have a new poll out of Arizona next week, and at the least the pollster is expecting a very close race.
Yes We Can!