Taking a look at today's RCP electoral map one sees that Ohio has gone into the "Leans Obama" category, and RCP has granted Obama 303 EVs without tossups added.
Just two days after McCain's "going all in in Pennsylvania" went into effect, the wind has left the sails of his Ohio efforts.
I expected this. McCain has very little mojo at this point. So his latest Mavericky move has failed and failed quickly. He doesn't have time to reallocate resources to save Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and simultaneously get a mystical win in Pennsylvania.
I think we can give SOC Jennifer Brunner some credit for this current state of affairs. McCain needed just the right amount of disenfranchisement in Ohio to make theft of Ohio's EVs believable. And to date his efforts have been thwarted by Brunner.
Now I think the polls and the "Republicans jumping ship" are going to get very ugly.
By the time Obama gets back from Hawaii, Chuck Todd will be giving the McCain campaign its last rites on primetime (sometime Monday evening)
Below are the Ohio poll #'s for the past month.
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/16 - 10/22 -- -- 49.7 43.7 Obama +6.0
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 564 LV 4.2 53 41 Obama +12
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 737 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 4.0 47 49 McCain +2
Quinnipiac 10/16 - 10/21 1360 LV 2.7 52 38 Obama +14
Suffolk 10/17 - 10/19 600 LV 4.0 51 42 Obama +9
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/16 - 10/17 625 LV 4.0 45 46 McCain +1
Rasmussen 10/14 - 10/14 700 LV 4.0 49 49 Tie
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/13 575 LV 4.2 50 45 Obama +5
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 3.0 49 47 Obama +2
InAdv/PollPosition 10/09 - 10/09 509 LV 4.0 49 44 Obama +5
Marist 10/05 - 10/08 771 LV 3.5 49 45 Obama +4
Ohio Newspaper Poll 10/04 - 10/08 876 LV 3.0 46 48 McCain +2
Strategic Vision (R) 10/06 - 10/08 1200 LV 3.0 48 46 Obama +2
ARG 10/04 - 10/07 600 LV 4.0 48 45 Obama +3
CNN/Time 10/03 - 10/06 749 LV 3.5 50 47 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV 3.0 47 48 McCain +1
PPP (D) 10/04 - 10/05 1239 LV 2.8 49 43 Obama +6
ABC News/Wash Post 10/03 - 10/05 772 LV 3.5 51 45 Obama +6
Columbus Dispatch* 09/24 - 10/03 2262 LV 2.0 49 42 Obama +7
Democracy Corps (D) 09/29 - 10/01 600 LV -- 49 43 Obama +6
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 512 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2
SurveyUSA 09/28 - 09/29 693 LV 3.8 48 49 McCain +1
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 825 LV 3.4 50 42 Obama +8
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 4.5 47 48 McCain +1
Rasmussen 09/24 - 09/24 700 LV 4.0 46 47 McCain +1