At the risk of being slightly overconfident, let's focus for a minute on Election Night. We will be biting our nails and engaging in various superstitious rituals to will Barack Obama to victory (as a life-long Red Sox fan, this is second nature for me). But there are more reliable methods to know if and when Obama will have crossed the 270 threshold even before it officially happens. In short, the cold, unforgiving math of the Electoral College.
We all know it takes 270 EVs to win. If you look at Obama's map right now, he has what I would call three solid "chunks" of states that are pretty much assured of going his way.
The Northeast: (ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ, MD, DE, DC, MI). That is a block of 113 electoral votes, the vast majority of which will be called for Obama slightly after 8:01 PM Eastern that night. New Hampshire may take a little longer but will go blue as well. I include Michigan only because it is a virtual lock and also in the Eastern zone.
The Midwest: (IL, WI, IA, MN). 48 more EVs that are almost assuredly Obama's. McCain thinks he is competitive in Wisconsin and Iowa for some reason but no poll backs that up. These will declare for Obama shortly after 9:00 Eastern.
The West Coast: (CA, HI, OR, WA). 77 guaranteed EVs for Obama. These will come in officially later in the evening at 11 PM Eastern or later (but not much later).
So right here I think you can reasonably agree, with this scenario, that Obama already has close to a hammer-lock on 238 EVs. That leaves him with only 32 to go. So we could know well before 9 PM Eastern if Obama has won based on a couple of states.
Pennsylvania: Polling well for Obama. If he wins here that gives him 21 EVs. This would put Obama at 259.
Virginia: The 13 EVs of Virginia have been turning more and more for Obama. Were he to win here as well, that would give Obama 272 electoral votes and the Presidency.
And that is my point. If you believe (as I do) that Obama has a lock on those 125 EVs that are not in the Eastern Time Zone, then PA and VA could be the arbiters of who wins or loses. We could know within the first hour or so on Election Night whether or not Barack Obama has become the next president.
We don't need to rely on Ohio or Florida or Missouri to win. I would definitely love to win all those states and turn this into a rout, but Obama's 50-state strategy has ensured they are not the rocks upon which Democratic hopes are dashed once more.
And there are buffers as well. Should New Hampshire go for McCain, New Mexico fills the gap. Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina are trending his way as well. Even Georgia is tightening up.
None of this should be taken as a reason to stop working. We have to work now like we're the ones in a hole instead of McCain. Just look at this as confirmation that we are winning the battle, that Dean and Obama were right on strategy, and as an opportunity to start partying a little earlier that night.