When you are trying to claw your way back into the race for president, it is probably not a happy sign that your opponent has one of his best polling days just 12 days prior to the election.
Yet that is the fate that befell the McCain team today, as we got one new national poll (with a solid Obama lead), we got some real absurdity from one of our trackers (which keeps Obama from expanding his lead in the trackers), and we have a new record number of 48 different individual polls, many of which give Obama his biggest leads of the entire election.
Follow me.
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
We have, surprisingly, only one national poll today, although it brings good news for Barack Obama. Big Ten Battleground, a consortium organized by a pair of U. of Wisconsin professors (one of whom, Charles Franklin, is one of the guys behind Pollster.com), polls nationally and finds that Barack Obama leads John McCain by a margin of 52%-43%.
Meanwhile, our favorite quasi-tracker from the good folks at GWU/Battleground lose the "Drudge's favorite pollster" crown, as they pad a couple of points onto Obama's narrow lead in their survey. It is now a four-point race, according to them.
But, just when Drudge might have to rely on another poll of grade schoolers to keep his audience sane, along comes the good folks at Investor's Business Daily. Their pollster, TIPP, hails itself as the "nation's most accurate pollster." Given the data they are throwing out to us today, they may well be looking to abdicate that crown.
Forget for the moment the topline, which has it Obama 45%, McCain 44%. Enjoy, for a moment, some of the internals. This is the best: among those aged 18-24, they have it...McCain 74%, Obama 22%.
I shit you not.
That alone ought to disqualify them from polling this race, even though they do offer the proviso that "age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size".
But how small is it really? 6% of the electorate, roughly? So, this one glaring mistake alone may account for a FOUR-point swing in the results.
Oh, and they also have McCain up 26 points in the suburbs. Oh, and apparently most of the voters in America are Southerners, since this is the only region where McCain has a lead. If you assume that all four regions vote in roughly equal numbers, Obama would have a lead of closer to four points.
It is not to be taken seriously, especially when practically every other data point disputes their findings.
Speaking of the other trackers, they all give Obama between a 5 and a 12 point lead. We see gains for Obama with Zogby (from O+10 to O+12) and Rasmussen (from O+6 to O+7). Gallup continues its recent retreat off of Obama's peak lead (today it goes from O+8 to O+6). Lastly, Diageo/Hotline (O+5), Research 2000 (O+10), and ABC/Washington Post (O+11) hold steady today.
NATIONAL POLLS
CBS/New York Times: Obama 52%, McCain 39%
Big Ten Battleground: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
GWU/Battleground: Obama 49%, McCain 45%
TRACKING POLLS:
Zogby: Obama 52%, McCain 40%
ABC/Washington Post: Obama 54%, McCain 43%
Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 41%
Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48%, McCain 43%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 45%, McCain 44%
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLING
McCain's best hope right now is that there is little media coverage of the state polls that were released today. Because there is virtually NONE of them that his campaign can hang its hat on.
Big Ten and Quinnipiac got the ball rolling with a total of eleven new polls, some of which seemed almost too good to be true. TWO pollsters with Ohio up double digits for Obama?
But, as the day wore on, the news did not get any better for Team McCain. National Journal puts three blue-state midwestern battlegrounds in the Obama column by double digits. SurveyUSA becomes the FOURTH pollster of the day to put the McCain campaign's self-appointed firewall state (Pennsylvania) into the Obama column by double digits. And then, the coup de grace--the first poll in four months with Obama leading in Montana.
What can McCain hang his hat on? Well, he has Louisiana locked up, according to Rasmussen. And he may not be getting crushed as bad as he thought in Washington. And...well...that's about it.
Twenty-one states get new polling. Using our tracker of momentum (this set of polls vs. the Pollster.com trend composite), Obama beats the spread in EIGHTEEN of them. McCain? Three.
ALABAMA--Capital Survey: McCain 54%, Obama 34%, Others 2% (Obama)
ARKANSAS--U. of Arkansas: McCain 51%, Obama 36% (McCain)
CALIFORNIA--PPIC: Obama 56%, McCain 33%, Others 2% (Obama)
FLORIDA #1--Quinnipiac: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, Others 1% (Obama)
FLORIDA #2--Miami Herald: Obama 49%, McCain 42%
GEORGIA--Rasmussen: McCain 51%, Obama 46% (Obama)
ILLINOIS--Big Ten: Obama 61%, McCain 32%, Others 2% (Obama)
INDIANA--Big Ten: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, Others 1% (Obama)
IOWA--Big Ten: Obama 52%, McCain 39%, Others 2% (Obama)
KANSAS--SurveyUSA: McCain 53%, Obama 41% (Obama)
LOUISIANA--Rasmussen: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (McCain)
MAINE--Critical Insights: Obama 56%, McCain 35% (Obama)
MICHIGAN--Big Ten: Obama 58%, McCain 36%, Others 1% (Obama)
MINNESOTA #1--Big Ten: Obama 57%, McCain 38%, Others 1% (Obama)
MINNESOTA #2--National Journal: Obama 50%, McCain 40%
MINNESOTA #3--Rasmussen: Obama 57%, McCain 42%
MONTANA--Montana State: Obama 44%, McCain 40% (Obama)
OHIO #1--Quinnipiac: Obama 52%, McCain 38%, Others 2% (Obama)
OHIO #2--Big Ten: Obama 53%, McCain 41% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Muhlenberg: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, Others 2% (McCain)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--Quinnipiac: Obama 53%, McCain 40%, Others 2%
PENNSYLVANIA #3--Big Ten: Obama 52%, McCain 42%
PENNSYLVANIA #4--National Journal: Obama 51%, McCain 41%
PENNSYLVANIA #5--SurveyUSA: Obama 53%, McCain 41%, Others 4%
TEXAS--Rasmussen: McCain 54%, Obama 44%, Others 1% (Obama)
WASHINGTON--Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 43% (Obama)
WEST VIRGINIA--Orion Strategies: McCain 49%, Obama 44% (Obama)
WISCONSIN #1--Big Ten: Obama 53%, McCain 41%, Others 1% (Obama)
WISCONSIN #2--National Journal: Obama 53%, McCain 40%
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
Quite a few figures today, but only a handful of them have true "wow" factors. A public poll confirming the interals in Washington's 8th district, with Darcy Burner up four on Dave Reichert. Meanwhile, Rasmussen polls three high-interest races, and all of them bring good news for the Democrats. Mary Landrieu is up double digits in Louisiana. Al Franken is up in Minnesota. Christine Gregoire is up in Washington.
There are a few mild disappointments here. But not many.
GA-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 47%, Jim Martin (D) 45%, Others 1%
IL-11--SurveyUSA: Debbie Halvorson (D) 50%, Marty Ozinga (R) 37%, Others 9%
KS-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 57%, Jim Slattery (D) 35%
KS-04--SurveyUSA: Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) 62%, Donald Betts (D) 29%, Others 5%
KY-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 47%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 43%
LA-SEN #1--Rasmussen: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 53%, John Kennedy (R) 43%
LA-SEN #2--Mellman (D): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 54%, John Kennedy (R) 34%, Others 3%
ME-SEN--Critical Insights: Sen. Susan Collins (R) 54%, Tom Allen (D) 42%
ME-01--Critical Insights: Chellie Pingree (D) 56%, Charlie Summers (R) 35%
ME-02--Critical Insights: Rep. Mike Michaud (D) 64%, John Frary (R) 23%
MI-09--Grove (D): Gary Peters (D) 46%, Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) 36%, Others 2%
MN-SEN #1--Rasmussen: Al Franken (D) 41%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 37%, Dean Barkley (I) 17%
MN-SEN #2--Big Ten: Al Franken (D) 40%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 34%, Dean Barkley (I) 15%
NJ-SEN--Monmouth: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 54%, Dick Zimmer (R) 36%, Others 2%
OH-15--G.Q.R. (D): Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 44%, Steve Stivers (R) 36%, Others 11%
PA-12--Susquehanna: Rep. John Murtha (D) 46%, William Russell (R) 41%
TX-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. John Cornyn (R) 55%, Rick Noriega (D) 40%
WA-GOV--Rasmussen: Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%
WA-08--SurveyUSA: Darcy Burner (D) 50%, Rep. Dave Reichert (R) 46%
WV-SEN--Orion Strategies: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) 60%, Jay Wolfe (R) 36%
I am sure there may be more polls coming out late this afternoon and evening, but I am off to coaching, then football. I'll update if and when I can.
Happy Thursday.