If Marc Ambinder can do it, so can I.
Let me start out on a note of agreement:
Republicans tend to pick the next guy in line.
As I will demonstrate below, Republicans do in fact have a hierarchy in terms of determining who will be the nominee of their party. Ambinder and I disagree, however, on who the next "guy" in line will be:
Strangely enough, the next guy in line is now Sarah Palin, by virtue of her being the VP nominee this year.
History doesn't show this to be the case.
Here's a table I created showing all GOP presidential nominees dating back to 1952:
Candidate | Claim to fame | Notes | Year |
John McCain | 2000 2nd place finisher | | 2008 |
George W. Bush | Incumbent | | 2004 |
George W. Bush | Son of former president | | 2000 |
Bob Dole | 1976 VP nominee | Senate Majority leader | 1996 |
George H.W. Bush | Incumbent | | 1992 |
George H.W. Bush | Vice President | | 1988 |
Ronald Reagan | Incumbent | | 1984 |
Ronald Reagan | 1976 2nd place finisher | | 1980 |
Gerald Ford | Incumbent | | 1976 |
Richard Nixon | Incumbent | | 1972 |
Richard Nixon | 1960 nominee | VP 1952 & 56 | 1968 |
Barry Goldwater | 1960 2nd place finisher | | 1964 |
Richard Nixon | Vice President | | 1960 |
Dwight Eisenhower | Incumbent | | 1956 |
Dwight Eisenhower | General | | 1952 |
From this data, I have determined the GOP hierarchy to be as follows:
- Incumbent President/Son of former president
- Incumbent Vice President
- 2nd place finisher from the previous contested presidential nomination contest
- Former GOP presidential nominee
- Former GOP VP nominee
There is no election which doesn't fit this formula, except for Eisenhower in 1952, who ran after 2 terms of Truman and 4 terms of FDR. At that point, the GOP didn't have anyone else. For the same reason, elections before 1952 don't apply.
According to the Republicans' heir-to-the-throne style thinking, the son of a former president is equal to an incumbent president. This explains the nomination of George W. Bush.This is why George W. Bush was the instant front-runner for the nomination in 2000. When there is no Republican incumbent president running, then obviously, the current Republican vice president will win the nomination. If there is no incumbent president or vice president, then the 2nd place finisher from the previous contest will secure the nomination. Since George W. Bush can't run for another term, and Dick Cheney chose not to run, then John McCain won the nomination by being the 2nd place finisher in 2000 (the last contest they had). If even the 2nd place finisher isn't running, then a former presidential nominee gets the spot, as when Nixon secured the nomination in 1968 after previously having been the nominee in 1960. And when even a former presidential nominee isn't available, the Republicans resort to a former vice presidential nominee. This would explain Bob Dole securing the nomination in 1996, after having been on the ticket in 1976 with Gerald Ford.
So let's see where prospective 2012 nominees fit into this hierarchy, shall we?
- Incumbent/son of former president
If Jeb Bush wanted to run, this is the category he would fall into, and would no doubt secure his party's nomination. However, he would certainly lose in the general election, which is why no one seriously expects him to run.
- Incumbent Vice President
Joe Biden isn't a Republican, so this won't be a possibility.
- 2nd place finisher
That would be Mike Huckabee. As the 2nd place finisher in the Republican primaries, he seems set to be in the highest ranking category of the hierarchy.
- Former nominee
The only former nominee left is Bob Dole. I don't see him running again.
- Former VP nominee
This is the category Sarah Palin falls into, the same category Bob Dole fell into when he ran in 1996. Palin finds herself fifth on the hierarchy. If Sarah Palin wants to win the GOP nomination, she'll have to convince Mike Huckabee that he'd rather keep his job as a Fox News commentator than run for president.
So, bottom line: If Mike Huckabee decides to run for the GOP nomination, he will be the instant front-runner. Sarah Palin might be a tough contender, but, if history is any guide, ultimately Huckabee will win.
Finally, let me end on another note of agreement:
That being said, GOP voters simply don't nominate new candidates who came from nowhere. Therefore, no matter what events transpire, we can safely predict that the GOP will nominate someone who is already known to us today.