Much press attention has been dedicated to the Republican base that Sarah Palin is supposed to be holding firm for the McCain campaign, and the voters in that base who have been described as "born-again" Christians in media coverage. This is a group that former candidate Huckabee had also connected with.
But there is very interesting news out from a poll just released by the Barna Group - a research firm that specializes in tracking trends in the Christian community.
Most of you have probably never heard of this firm but they have been in business for some time:
The Barna Group, Ltd. began operations in 1984 as a marketing research firm serving Christian ministries, non-profit organizations and various media and financial corporations. During its two decades of service, TBG has carefully and strategically tracked the role of faith in America, developing the nation’s most comprehensive database on spiritual indicators. The objective of that information is to help Christian ministries think and act more biblically and strategically.
Their report, just released yesterday was entitled:
Obama Poised to Win and Make Significant Inroads with Christian Voters
It was also carried in the Dallas Morning News as: McCain and Obama in `dead heat' among born-again voters
Barna points out that there is a lot of confusion, or misunderstanding in the TM on the differences between "born-again" and "evangelical" Christians, and that the term gets applied, incorrectly to both groups.
Breaking Down the Christian Vote
The born again segment is large and diverse. This November, born again voters figure to represent nearly one out of every two votes (48%), but they are far from a monolithic voting bloc. Barna Group surveys differentiate between two segments within the born again population - evangelicals and non-evangelical born again Christians. [Note: Most media polls use a simplistic approach to define evangelical, asking survey respondents if they consider themselves to be evangelical. Barna Group studies, on the other hand, ask a series of nine questions about a person’s religious beliefs in order to determine if they are an evangelical.]
Here are some of their results:
One of the surprising insights of the research is the significant inroads Sen. Obama has made among the Christian community, particularly compared to 2004. In fact, among born again voters there is a statistical dead-heat: 45% plan to vote for Sen. McCain, while 43% expect to cast a ballot for Sen. Obama. Even if Sen. McCain were to sweep the 10% who are undecided born again voters, he would fail to reach the 62% who rallied for President Bush in 2004.
They go on to give more details (my bold):
The larger of the two groups, non-evangelical voters, represent 39% of likely voters. Currently, a plurality support Sen. Obama over Sen. McCain (48% to 41%). Nine percent of these voters are undecided, theoretically giving either candidate a chance to win this segment of voters. However, if voter preference sustains through Election Day, John McCain will not duplicate the significant margin enjoyed by George Bush over John Kerry four years ago among non-evangelical born again Christians (56% to 44%).
Evangelicals Waver
An equally surprising insight from the research is the fact that Obama has cut into the advantage Republicans enjoyed among the smaller, more conservative segment of evangelicals. Although evangelicals will represent about 9% of likely voters this November, they have been a critical base of solidly Republican voting for several decades. In 2004, for instance, 85% of these voters selected George Bush.
However, with two weeks to go before the election just 63% said they are supporting the Arizona Senator, compared with 23% who opted for the candidate from Illinois. With 12% of the evangelical vote undecided, there is still a chance for McCain to expand his advantage with this group. Nevertheless, support for Obama has steadily increased over the summer months, moving from 9% of evangelicals who supported Obama in May to 17% in late July to the current level of 23%.
The shift from 9% in May to 23% today is quite interesting, particularly given the attacks against Barack hinting at his Muslim origins. My guess is that the Rev. Wright tapes repeated again and again have had a surprising un-expected side effect. Firmly implanting the idea that Barack attended an enthusiastically Christian church.
This may also point to the success of the Joshua and Matthew 25 projects - which have been diaried about here in the past, which we haven't paid much attention to of late.
I was of course interested in their polling methodology, which upon inspection seemed quite comprehensive:
About the Research
This report is based upon telephone interviews conducted by The Barna Group with a random sample of 1005 adults selected from across the continental United States, age 18 and older, October 11-15, 2008. The maximum margin of sampling error associated with the aggregate sample is ±3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Minimal statistical weighting was used to calibrate the aggregate sample to known population percentages in relation to several key demographic variables.
To focus on the leanings of "likely voters," 617 such adults were interviewed. A likely voter was defined as one who is registered to vote; voted in the 2004 presidential election; could recall the candidate they voted for that year; and claims they will "definitely" vote in the November election. Among people of voting age who were too young to vote in the 2004 election, the criteria were altered to reflect their ineligible status four years ago. The maximum margin of sampling error associated with the aggregate sample is ±4.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
They give more detail for their categories of "born again" versus "evangelical":
"Born again Christians" are defined as people who said they have made a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in their life today and who also indicated they believe that when they die they will go to Heaven because they had confessed their sins and had accepted Jesus Christ as their savior. Respondents are not asked to describe themselves as "born again."
"Evangelicals" meet the born again criteria (described above) plus seven other conditions. Those include saying their faith is very important in their life today; believing they have a personal responsibility to share their religious beliefs about Christ with non-Christians; believing that Satan exists; believing that eternal salvation is possible only through grace, not works; believing that Jesus Christ lived a sinless life on earth; asserting that the Bible is accurate in all that it teaches; and describing God as the all-knowing, all-powerful, perfect deity who created the universe and still rules it today. Being classified as an evangelical is not dependent upon church attendance or the denominational affiliation of the church attended. Respondents were not asked to describe themselves as "evangelical."
Non-evangelical born again Christians meet the born again criteria described above, but not the evangelical criteria. Notional Christians are those who consider themselves to be Christian but do not meet the not born again criteria.
The erosion of the "born-again Christian base" that went all out for Bush is definitely good news for us. The press, and many of us here have not been focused on these data. But they represent statistically significant gains for the Obama campaign, and may explain the absence of the strong born-again Republican GOTV that we've seen in the past.
The report offers the following conclusions:
"At the beginning of the summer, the Christian community was moderately engaged in the presidential campaigns, but they are now much more interested in and willing to vote in the election. Yet, the problem for the McCain campaign is that their increased enthusiasm for the election has not translated into support the way it did leading up to 2004. Even conservative evangelical voters - while still solidly in McCain’s column - are surprisingly willing to consider Obama’s candidacy.
"Anything can happen, but the election is clearly Obama’s to lose," commented Kinnaman, president of the California-based Barna Group. "If Obama goes on to win, one of the significant stories will be the profile of the faith vote. People will wonder whether he won because of effective outreach by Democrats to the Christian community, ineffective efforts of Republicans, or shifts in the voting priorities of Christians, especially younger believers. Whatever the case, compared to when the names Kerry and Bush were on the ballot, the Democrats are poised to make up significant ground among born again and evangelical voters."
I concur with their conclusions. Christian "wedge" issues of both abortion and gay marriage are no longer holding the power they had in the past. Yes, they still drive about half of this vote, but it is no longer the monolithic power it was in the past, and the power of the Matthew 25 message of feed the hungry, help the sick, combat poverty and care for the environment seems to have captured a large segment of thoughtful Christians - in opposition to the "kill the witches" extremism of the segment that Palin appeals to.