Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading McCain 52-40. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.
Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) wrote up a tracking poll primer covering the eight available trackers. It includes sample size, time of publication and quirks, as well as Nate's opinion of the trackers. Recommended.
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Today
Research 2000: 52 (51) 40 (41) 3 LV
Reuters/Zogby: 51 (52) 41 (40) 2.9 LV
Rasmussen: 52 (52) 45 (45) 2 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 50 (48) 43 (43) 3.4 LV
Battleground: 49 (49) 46 (45) 3.1 LV
Gallup: 50 (50) 42 (43) 2 RV See also the LV I and LV II numbers
IBD/TIPP: 46 (45) 42 (44) 3.3 LV alternate link
ABC/WaPo: 53 (54) 44 (43) 3 LV
D-corps: 52 (49) 43 (44) 3 LV
Yesterday
Big 10: 52 (46) 43 (45) 3.1 LV
CBS/NY Times: 52 (53) 39 (39) 3 LV
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +12 Tues, +10 Wed and +14 Thurs.
This afternoon's pollster.com 'tracker-only' chart:
Gallup has today's "it's stable, folks" quote:
Nothing so far represents a major change in the structure of the race, and the big picture conclusion is that Obama is maintaining his lead over McCain with less than two weeks to go before Election Day.
But that stability is an Obama win. From Politico:
Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said Friday that his party is in position for "an earthquake election" come Nov. 4.
"Nothing is going to look the same," Greenberg said, joined by Democratic strategist James Carville at a breakfast with reporters hosted by The Christian Science Monitor.
Carville likened the Washington political environment to pre-Hurricane Katrina New Orleans, saying that "there will be nothing left standing" after the election. He added that Republicans stand to lose "not just an election but a generation of voters."
Click the internals and check the 18-29 demo group to see what Carville is talking about.
We generally look only at national polls in this space, but the independent/voter angle perhaps is representative. In FL:
Independent Florida voters are on the verge of killing John McCain’s hopes for the presidency.
A new St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Barack Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent in this state McCain cannot afford to lose. The biggest factor? Less partisan independent voters moving to Obama by a margin of more than 2 to 1.
"Right now this election is about independents — independents and the economy,’’ said pollster Tom Eldon. "Obama is clearly establishing himself as the candidate of the independents."
Florida remains very competitive for both sides. But remember those independents? Pew says people think the media favors Obama, that Obama won the debates (independent watchers said so 71-18), and
The ABC/WaPo tracker will be out at 5 pm EDT.