Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (no trendlines).
Love (R) 47
Bright (D) 45
Democratic Mayor of Montgomery Bobby Bright trails well within the margin of error; he's two points down on Republican Jay Love to fill the open seat of retiring Republican Terry Everett. Bright's internals show the same deadlock (46-45 for Bright), while the DCCC's internals show a significant lead for Bright, 50% to 43%.
Bright is not known as an especially aggressive campaigner, or an aggressive fundraiser. So this one may come down to third-party organizations - the DCCC, NRCC, Freedom's Watch - and to field operations.
The Republicans have held this one since 1964 - it's an R+13 seat, where former Rep. Terry Everett routinely raced up big margins. Bright is an undeniably conservative Democrat, and would be one of the most conservative in the House.
Still, it would be a tremendous coup to turn this part of the House map blue:
On the web:
Bobby Bright for U.S. Congress
AL-2 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Third Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 21 and October 23, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 192 (48%)
Women 208 (52%)
Democrats 124 (31%)
Republicans 192 (48%)
Independents/Other 84 (21%)
18-29 68 (17%)
30-44 124 (31%)
45-59 128 (32%)
60+ 80 (20%)
White 320 (80%)
Black 68 (17%)
Other 12 (3%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jay Love? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 15% 33% 23% 13% 16%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 48% 36% 16%
MEN 51% 34% 15%
WOMEN 45% 38% 17%
DEMOCRATS 26% 62% 12%
REPUBLICANS 65% 17% 18%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 38% 18%
18-29 45% 39% 16%
30-44 48% 36% 16%
45-59 49% 35% 16%
60+ 51% 34% 15%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bobby Bright? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 35% 26% 9% 19%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 46% 35% 19%
MEN 43% 39% 18%
WOMEN 49% 31% 20%
DEMOCRATS 67% 12% 21%
REPUBLICANS 32% 52% 16%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 33% 20%
18-29 49% 31% 20%
30-44 46% 36% 18%
45-59 45% 36% 19%
60+ 44% 37% 19%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Bobby Bright the Democrat or Jay Love the Republican?
LOVE BRIGHT UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 45% 8%
MEN 51% 44% 5%
WOMEN 43% 46% 11%
DEMOCRATS 7% 89% 4%
REPUBLICANS 74% 14% 12%
OTHER 45% 50% 5%
18-29 42% 49% 9%
30-44 47% 45% 8%
45-59 48% 44% 8%
60+ 49% 43% 8%
WHITE 56% 37% 7%
BLACK 5% 83% 12%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 56% 39% 2% 3%
MEN 59% 37% 2% 2%
WOMEN 53% 41% 2% 4%
DEMOCRATS 11% 84% 2% 3%
REPUBLICANS 88% 7% 2% 3%
OTHER 51% 42% 3% 4%
18-29 51% 43% 2% 4%
30-44 55% 39% 2% 4%
45-59 57% 38% 2% 3%
60+ 61% 36% 1% 2%
WHITE 67% 28% 3% 2%
BLACK 4% 89% - 7%