These are my final predictions for the 2008 election. I will cover the electoral vote, the vote percentages, margins of victory (for the presidential election) in each state. Also, I will individually cover the competitive Senate races and give a prediction on the net seat change there and in the House. Any suggestions and constructive criticisms are welcome.
First I'll cover the states.
Finally, if anyone knows how to upload images, this is my first diary and I would love to add a map.
The Presidential Election
The Vote
Turnout: 135-140 Million. I will peg the number at 138 million voters in this election cycle.
Obama vote %: 52-54% Nationally. I think Obama will receive about 53% of the vote.
McCain vote%: 45-48% Nationally. I believe that McCain will most likely be at 46%.
Electoral Vote Breakdown
Margins
Solid: Vote margin is above 10+%
Strong: Vote margin is 6-10%
Lean: Vote margin is 1-5%
Solid and Strong Obama states are depicted in dark blue, lean Obama is in light blue. Solid and strong McCain states are depicted in red and lean McCain is in Pink. Thanks are given to Real Clear Politics.com for the use of their map-maker utility. In addition I would like to thank FiveThirtyEight, as an excellent source of polling.
So, lets begin with the Obama states.
Solid Obama
California - 55
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
D.C. - 3
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Maine (At large, ME-1, MA-2) - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
New Jersey - 15
New York - 31
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Washington - 11
Solid Obama - 183
Strong Obama
Iowa - 7
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
New Hampshire - 4
New Mexico - 5
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Wisconsin - 10
Strong Obama - 81
Lean Obama
Colorado - 9
Florida - 27
Georgia - 15
Indiana - 11
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nevada - 5
North Carolina - 15
Ohio - 20
Virginia - 13
126 Lean Obama
Total Obama 393 EV
I'd like to explain a few of my Obama lean picks as well. Some of the more surprising states on this list include Georgia (GA), Indiana (IN) and Montana (MT). I have GA on the Obama list for a few reasons. The early voting is disproportionally African-American, relative to their population in the state. For the first time in a long time AA are registered and voting at or above average relative to their population nationally. Also, what I've read really suggests to me that the McCain ground game is weak in most places, particularly a place like GA where they thought they would be safe.
Indiana is the same. They have been neglecting efforts for months. Obama's been able to establish a positive reputation in the state even before the May primary. IN is a state not used to seeing attention and also tends to undervote compared to other states due to lack of competitiveness. However, they've hit the ground and the air hard for months basically uncontested. McCain left the state open and is paying the price for it.
Montana is a state that has always been on the Obama radar, but not a peak target. If he wins MT, he's long since gone over 270 EVs. However, McCain has no organization in the state, no ads, an attempt at purging 6000 votes in Democratic counties backfired on the state party and Ron Paul is somehow on the MT ballot. I've heard polling that has Obama up 45-44% gives Paul 4% of the vote, which is believable given his strong and close 2nd place finish in the MT caucus back in February.
As for SD and particularly ND, I hesitate to put them in the lean Obama column. I've seen some polling data, especially in ND that looks good for Obama, but he hasn't had as much staff or resources in ND as MT. During the Palin bounce, he shifted staff from ND to Minnesota. However, the offices and the volunteer infrastructure was left in place despite that and even if they don't win, to reduce the margin from 20%+ last time to a low single digit win would be an incredible accomplishment.
Solid McCain
Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Idaho - 4
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Nebraska (At large, NE-1, NE-3) - 4
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 8
Tennessee - 11
Utah - 5
Wyoming - 3
Solid McCain - 87
Strong McCain
Arkansas - 6
Mississippi - 6
Texas - 34
Strong McCain - 46
Lean McCain
Nebraska (NE-2) - 1
North Dakota - 3
South Dakota - 3
West Virginia - 5
Lean McCain - 12
Total McCain - 145
Senate
Democratic Senate Pick-ups:
Alaska*
Colorado*
Georgia*
Minnesota*
Mississippi-B*
New Hampshire*
New Mexico*
North Carolina*
Oregon*
Virginia*
*Seat Change from Democrat to Republican
Republican Pick-ups:
None
Senate Margin 61-39 (Counting Sen Libermann I-CT, Sen Sanders I-VT)
A couple of these seats will be in part due to the Obama surge. Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico and New Hampshire seemed like pretty safe pick-ups regardless of Obama. Alaska is still tough, but I would say that having Obama on the ticket helps a lot more than Clinton would have. Minnesota, North Carolina, Oregon and even more so in the Georgia and Mississippi-B senate races, there is a clear benefit from having Obama voters. I think those voters will put Musgrove and Martin over the top in their senate races. I expect more voters in these last two states to ticket split going for McCain-Musgrove or McCain-Martin, as opposed to Obama-Wicker and Obama-Chambliss. I'm highly dubious of someone voting Democratic for president and Republican for Senate in these two races.
Kentucky is also very close, but I chose not to rate it as a pick-up for a few reasons, but most importantly: Obama does not have any coattails in Kentucky. Its one of the few states that he has a net negative effect in comparison to Clinton. Its still a good opportunity, but I don't know if it'll happen this time around. It would be icing on the cake for the Democrats though.
House of Representatives
The Democrats here will gain 30-35 seats.
Current: D-236 R-199
Projected: D- (266-271) R- (169-164)
I originally projected lower, but I expect some surprise wins for the Democrats here. For example the MN-06 race came onto radar real fast after Bachmann's horrible comments and put her in the crosshairs.
There are a number of competitive Democratic seats as well, but the only one that looks like a sure lose is Mahoney's district down in Florida. I doubt very many Democrats will be weeping over the loss there because he generally was not a cooperative vote and turned out to be a real hypocrite.
Overall, I have felt for over a year now that this year's elections have had the potential to be a realignment of the American political spectrum. Some elections can slow a realignment (such as the 1974 Midterms), or accelerate/complete a realignment (such as 1994). In 2006 we saw a large shift in Congress towards the Democrats. However, re-alignments are defined more by trends in the Presidency. Obama will be the first person not from the South or California to be elected president since Kennedy. Also, he will be the first sitting Senator to win election in over 40 years. The 'Solid South' is fracturing, particularly in Virginia. Also, the intermountain West is becoming more of a swing region in some states. This is a big wave and I see the Democrats becoming the majority party for the next 20-40 years.