What if individuals in the more traditionally 'Red' regions of the country have been hiding their support for Obama? What if the Bradley effect has been reversed in these areas, becoming the Obama effect?
The swing in the polls in so many red states in recent weeks, even with the economy as the major factor, is somewhat remarkable. I think we can all agree on that. The idea that the black Democrat is within 6-to-8 points in a state like Georgia is... astounding.
If all of the recent polls showing Obama support in traditionally 'Red' states, such as North Carolina, Missouri, and Virgina had not been verified by multiple polls by now, I'm sure they would be easily dismissed as flukes. If the polls of areas like Montana and the Dakota's had likewise been isolated, where even though McCain remains ahead, the margin is... marginal... I'm sure they, too, would have been easily dismissed. Yet they have all been verified by additional polls.
There has been all of this talk, fearfully, of the Bradley Effect. People claiming they'll vote for Obama to pollsters, simply to avoid seeming racist.
However...
What if there is a reverse Bradley effect at work?
Such to be dubbed the Obama effect, I suppose.
That a great many people, especially registered Republicans, and Independents living in states with a great level of racial unease... if said individuals claimed they would vote for McCain until very recently because they feared being identified as Obama supporters. That they have been supporters of Obama, yet fearful to admit such and risk being ostracized in some manner from their peers whom where vocal, true McCain supporters?
The Bradley effect did exist. I think we can agree on that. Whether or not it still does, we can not yet say. I wonder, though, if the entire effect may have turned on it's proverbial head? That now we have people who, rather than claiming to vote for the black candidate to avoid appearing racist, they now claim to vote for the Caucasian candidate to avoid being singled out as an Obama supporter in areas of the country where race is still a more sensitive subject?
UPDATE: Seems I'm not the first to think of this. Apparently, it's already been suggested. Though I was unaware of such. Ah well. Great minds think alike, perhaps?
http://en.wikipedia.org/...