I just don’t get you Americans. He is mavericky, he is heroicky and he is experienceky. And still you don't like him. So says Rasmussen at least. According to their latest tracking poll result, McCain has reached the lowest favorable rating so far in the tracker (50%). To make the point more clear (and try to please Granny Doc) I've plotted McCain’s favorable ratings in a graph:
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Some analysis below the fold:
Now, I like Rasmussen. According to Nate Silver, they are the third most accurate pollster. And I like the fact that their numbers are stable, instead of displaying large swings one cannot relate to specific causes. So when their numbers hit a milestone, there’s something there. So again, why in hell don’t you like McCain?
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Well the first reason could be that he doesn’t always look too good, specially in debates:
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A second reason could be the financial crisis. Although with significant movements, the current milestone has been hit after a downward trend that was triggered by the financial crisis: McCain's highest rating was 60% on September the 8th, and the crisis broke out on September the 7th with the collapse of Fannie and Freddie. McCain likes to say he's been tested, but that doesn't mean he's always passed the tests. The financial crisis sure tested him, and he failed the test miserably. He was erratic, confused and unprepared.
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A third reason could lie in the fact that he certainly does not generate much enthusiasm. Using Rasmussen numbers again, I have plotted the difference between Obama’s very favorable ratings and McCain’s. These numbers have not only always been positive but rather high. I find that quite striking: at the best point for McCain, on the 14th of September, Obama still led by 6 percentage points over him (and he was soon going to more than double this lead). Now Obama’s lead according to this measure is higher than it has been since the beginning of June (when Clinton finally conceded).
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If a critical mass of people around you is enthusiastic about a candidate, it is far more likely you will have a favourable opinion than if there are just a few weirdoes:
When things get tough, you need a strong group of core supporters to stand by you, and McCain just never had that.
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A fourth reason could be the fact that the robocalls in particular and the negative campaigning in general have destroyed the reason why certain voters, particularly independents actually had a favourable opinion of McCain in the first place: his moral rectitude and honesty (the supposed straight talk).
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And of course the fifth and final reason, how can you have a positive view of someone that would be fine with having her as POTUS: