I looked at the latest state polls today and noticed something that
might surprise Ron Fournier, whose email address is
rfournier@ap.org.
Of the 17 states deemed battlegrounds early in the campaign season, only one is leaning toward Bush: Tennessee by 2 points. The major battlegrounds of Florida and Michigan have moved outside the margin of error for Kerry, while Pennsylvania has done so more than two times over. On the West Coast, Oregon favors Kerry by twice the margin of error, Washington State by even more. And Kerry has made new battlegrounds out of Arizona, North Carolina and Virginia, with Colorado close behind. Polls are fickle and subject to change -- remember Dukakis was up by 15 -- but the current trend is clear: state by state, Kerry is carrying America.
Charts after the jump.
EARLY BATTLEGROUNDS LEANING KERRY (WITHIN MOE) |
IA, ME, MN, MO, NV, OH, WI, WV (72 EV) |
EARLY BATTLEGROUNDS HEAVILY LEANING KERRY (>1x-2x MOE) |
FL, MI, NH, NM, OR (60 EV) |
EARLY BATTLEGROUNDS STRONGLY LEANING KERRY (>2x MOE) |
PA, WA (32 EV) |
NEW BATTLEGROUNDS FROM BUSH 2000 STATES |
VA, AZ, NC (38 EV) |
TIED BATTLEGROUNDS |
AR (6 EV) |
EARLY BATTLEGROUNDS LEANING BUSH |
TN (11 EV) |
EARLY BATTLEGROUNDS HEAVILY LEANING BUSH |
0 |
EARLY BATTLEGROUNDS STRONGLY LEANING BUSH |
0 |
NEW BATTLEGROUNDS FROM GORE 2000 STATES |
0 |
State | EV | Margin | Poll Date | Pollster | MOE | 2000 Margin |
HEAVILY LEANING KERRY |
OR | 7 | 8 K | 7/19-22 | ARG | 4 | 0 G |
NM | 5 | 7 K | 8/4 | Ras | 5 | 0 G |
NH | 4 | 7 K | 8/3-5 | ARG | 4 | 1 B |
MI | 17 | 7 K | 8/4-10 | EPIC | 4 | 5 G |
HI | 4 | 7 K | 7/29-8/3 | SMS | 4 | 19 G |
FL | 27 | 6 K | 8/5-10 | Quin | 3 | 0 B |
BATTLEGROUNDS |
NV | 5 | 4 K | 7/20-22 | SUSA | 4 | 4 B |
ME | 4 | 4 K | 7/1-31 | Ras | 5 | 5 G |
WV | 5 | 3 K | 7/26-28 | ARG | 4 | 8 B |
OH | 20 | 3 K | 8/9-11 | ARG | 4 | 4 B |
MN | 10 | 2 K | 7/31-8/3 | Stra | 3 | 2 G |
IA | 7 | 2 K | 7/31-8/3 | Stra | 3 | 1 G |
MO | 11 | 2 K | 7/13-20 | MRI | 4 | 3 B |
WI | 10 | 1 K | 7/30-8/2 | Stra | 3 | 0 G |
AR | 6 | TIE | 7/1-31 | Ras | 5 | 5 B |
TN | 11 | 2 B | 7/31-8/2 | SUSA | 4 | 4 B |
NC | 15 | 3 B | 8/8-11 | R2K | 4 | 13 B |
VA | 13 | 3 B | 7/1-31 | Ras | 5 | 8 B |
AZ | 10 | 3 B | 7/30-8/1 | MSG | 4 | 6 B |
HEAVILY LEANING BUSH |
CO | 9 | 5 B | 6/15-18 | M-D | 4 | 9 B |
SC | 8 | 7 B | 7/10-12 | SUSA | 4 | 16 B |