In his final week as a Presidential candidate, John McCain claims to be relishing his role as an underdog.
The truth: Politically, John McCain has almost never been an
underdog, winning his last six elections handily.
Here, for example, is his first race:
Arizona's 1st congressional district, 1982 (Republican primary):
John McCain - 15,363 (31.83%)
Ray Russell - 12,500 (25.89%)
James A. Mack - 10,675 (22.11%)
Donna Carlson-West - 9,736 (20.17%)
Arizona's 1st congressional district, 1982:
John McCain (R) - 89,116 (65.90%)
William E. Hegarty (D) - 41,261 (30.51%)
Richard K. Dodge (LBT) - 4,850 (3.59%)
Tight primary, perhaps. That's unsurprising, since McCain was a carpetbagger.
...John Jacob Rhodes, Jr., the longtime Republican congressman from Arizona's 1st congressional district, announced his retirement in January 1982. This seat encompassed parts of the Phoenix metropolitan area and was very close to where the McCains lived; Cindy McCain bought a house in the district the same day as Rhodes' announcement.
It took Cindy's money to win the primary:
McCain's campaign fell into early debt; his wife began loaning him tens of thousands of dollars to keep it alive. Donations also came in from Jim Hensley and other Hensley & Co. executives [Cindy McCain's family business], but the amounts grew large enough that the Federal Election Commission forced some of it to be returned. By the close of the primary, McCain was able to outspend his opponents; more of than half of his primary expenditures were financed by the eventual $167,000 that his wife lent to the campaign... In the end, $93,000 of the 1982 loan would be forgiven. The spending advantage enabled him to conduct productive television advertising, including a highly effective two-minute mini-documentary that presented him as new leader for Arizona with a record of service to the country.
From that point on, McCain won his Congressional and Senatorial elections with ease, receiving no primary opposition and garnering over 55% in each General Election: 78% in 1984; 60% in 1986; 56% in 1992 (post-Keating); 69% in 1998; 77% in 2004.
McCain can hardly point to the 2000 Presidential primary as proof of his underdog status. After all, he only won seven states and 31% of the primary votes. That's not an underdog; that's a loser. And his win in New Hampshire wasn't some underdog surge, but a genuine New England appeal -- five of the seven states he won are in New England.
That brings us to the 2008 primaries. McCain indeed triumphed over adversity in the primaries, though I think it's more likely that he won over a weak field, none of whom had much chance of uniting the fiscal and social conservatives. Still, in nearly thirty years of politics, the 2008 primaries represent the first time since 1982 that McCain has won a tough campaign. That record hardly demonstrates an ability to come from behind and win.