We are starting to see the late push of data as we head into the final week of the election cycle. No new national polls have been released, but we do have our seven tracking polls, as well as a total of 47 individual polls released today.
As happened a few days ago, we see an interesting juxtaposition, with the tracking polls seeming to move in McCain's direction modestly, while the state polls continue to look extremely good for Barack Obama. The national numbers may be tightening (we will know more in a couple of days), but the road to 270 for Team McCain still seems awfully arduous.
Follow me.
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
Surprisingly, we have no new national polls thus far today. We do have the GWU/Battleground quasi-tracking poll, which holds steady today at a three-point Obama lead. With the exception of a fairly bizarre pro-Obama spike about ten days ago, this has been consistently the most pro-McCain poll of them all out there.
As for the daily trackers, McCain certainly wins the day today. He gets movement in his direction in three of the seven tracking polls, and sharp movement in a pair of them: both Research 2000 (O+11 to O+8) and Rasmussen (O+8 to O+5) moved three points. IBD/TIPP also shrinks Obama's lead, but a much more modest amount (from O+4 to O+3).
There was positive movement in one tracking poll today, and that was from Gallup, which continues to incrementally increase Obama's lead. Today, it goes from O+9 to O+10 (53-43).
Three other trackers held steady today: Diageo/Hotline (O+8), ABC/Washington Post (O+7) and Zogby (O+5). All in all, Obama's average lead in the seven tracking polls drops from 7.4% yesterday to 6.6% today. With ten days to go, McCain needed to knock eight-tenths of a point off of Obama's lead PER DAY to stay in it. Through the first two days of that ten day sprint to the finish, it is worth noting that he has managed to do just that.
NATIONAL POLLS
GWU/BATTLEGROUND: Obama 49%, McCain 46%
TRACKING POLLS
GALLUP: Obama 53%, McCain 43%
DIAGEO/HOTLINE: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
RESEARCH 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
ABC/WASHINGTON POST: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
RASMUSSEN: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
ZOGBY: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47%, McCain 44%
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLS
Two major pollsters release a series of battleground state polls. Rasmussen polls six states, as they have basically done since September. The movement here this week is variable. Obama is in much better position in two battlegrounds (Florida and Ohio), in marginally better position in another (North Carolina), in marginally worse position in another(Colorado), and in much worse position in two others (Missouri and Virginia). The total picture is still very, very good overall.
Meanwhile, Zogby also polls eight battlegrounds, with the numbers being generally favorable to Obama. Of the eight battlegrounds featured (all Bush 2004 states), Obama presently leads in six of them: Florida (by 0.3%, so essentially a tie), Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. He gives McCain two states: Indiana and West Virginia.
In other data points, we see several additional polls out of Virginia giving Obama what would appear to be a modest-yet-comfortable lead. We also see some pretty good numbers out of Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
All in all, seventeen states get new data today. And our momentum tracker (measured by today's polls vs. the Pollster.com trend composite) splits them pretty evenly. McCain beats the spread in nine states, while Obama beats the spread in eight of them.
ARIZONA--Rasmussen: McCain 51%, Obama 46% (Obama)
CALIFORNIA--Rasmussen: Obama 61%, McCain 34% (Obama)
COLORADO--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, Others 1% (McCain)
FLORIDA #1--Zogby: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama)
FLORIDA #2--Suffolk: Obama 49%, McCain 44%
FLORIDA #3--Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, Others 1%
INDIANA--Zogby: McCain 50%, Obama 44% (McCain)
IOWA--Marist: Obama 52%, McCain 42% (McCain)
MISSOURI #1--Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 46% (McCain)
MISSOURI #2--SurveyUSA: Obama 48%, McCain 48%, Others 3%
MISSOURI #3--Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, Others 3%
NEVADA--Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44% (Obama)
NEW HAMPSHIRE--Marist: Obama 50%, McCain 45% (McCain)
NEW YORK--Siena College: Obama 62%, McCain 31% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA #1--Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 46% (McCain)
NORTH CAROLINA #2--PPP: Obama 49%, McCain 48%
NORTH CAROLINA #3--Rasmussen: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, Others 2%
OHIO #1--Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 45% (McCain)
OHIO #2--Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, Others 1%
OREGON--SurveyUSA: Obama 57%, McCain 38%, Others 3% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Muhlenberg: Obama 53%, McCain 40%, Others 2% (McCain)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--Temple Univ: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
VIRGINIA #1--Zogby: Obama 52%, McCain 45% (McCain)
VIRGINIA #2--Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%
VIRGINIA #3--V.C.U.: Obama 51%, McCain 40%
VIRGINIA #4--SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, Others 3%
VIRGINIA #5--Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, Others 1%
WASHINGTON--Washington Poll: Obama 55%, McCain 34%, Others 5% (Obama)
WEST VIRGINIA--Zogby: McCain 50%, Obama 40% (Obama)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
Quite a bit of stuff downballot today, and it is (more or less) remaining good news for the Democrats.
One poll I am not reporting today, because I do not have all the information yet. Politico's "Scorecard" section is reporting that there are Democratic internal polls that show David Scott in a good deal of trouble in GA-13 against Deborah Honeycutt. Honeycutt, you will recall, is the woman who raised nearly $5 million on her campaign through her association with BMW Direct (which has pocketed a lot of that money in fees). The story being bandied around has a pair of polls putting Scott under 50% of the vote, and with a lead of only 2-5 points. If I get real information (numbers, dates, pollster), I will add it to the list.
In more conventional polling news, we do get word today that another Democrat should be added to the endangered politicians list. Zogby polls TX-22, and finds incumbent Nick Lampson getting beat by Republican Pete Olson by 17 points. Even Lampson's own internal, released today, has him only tied with Olson (42-42).
In other news, another public poll has Linda Ketner on the cusp of the impossible in SC-01, while the Senate news for the Democrats looks very, very good, with the possible exception of the Mississippi Special Election.
CA-04--Research 2000: Charlie Brown (D) 48%, Tom McClintock (R) 42%
CO-SEN--Rocky Mountain News: Mark Udall (D) 51%, Bob Schaffer (R) 38%
FL-25--Research 2000: Mario Diaz Balart (R) 46%, Joe Garcia (D) 43%
IL-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 59%, Steve Sauerberg (R) 34%
MO-GOV #1--SurveyUSA: Jay Nixon (D) 55%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 38%, Others 5%
MO-GOV #2--Research 2000: Jay Nixon (D) 55%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 41%
MS-SEN--U. of South Alabama: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 45%, Ronnie Musgrove (D) 32%
NC-SEN--PPP: Kay Hagan (D) 48%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 45%, Others 4%
OR-SEN--SurveyUSA: Jeff Merkley (D) 49%, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 42%, Others 5%
SC-01--SurveyUSA: Rep. Henry Brown (R) 50%, Linda Ketner (D) 45%
OH-15--Benenson (D): Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 46%, Steve Stivers (R) 37%
TX-07--Zogby: Rep. John Culberson (R) 48%, Michael Skelly (D) 41%
TX-22 #1--Zogby: Pete Olson (R) 53%, Rep. Nick Lampson (D) 36%
TX-22 #2--Benenson (D): Pete Olson (R) 42%, Rep. Nick Lampson (D) 42%
VA-SEN #1--Washington Post: Mark Warner (D) 61%, Jim Gilmore (R) 31%, Others 3%
VA-SEN #2--VCU: Mark Warner (D) 61%, Jim Gilmore (R) 27%
VA-SEN #3--SurveyUSA: Mark Warner (D) 63%, Jim Gilmore (R) 32%
And that does it for now...why do I suspect that forty-seven polls might be the LEAST amount I see until Election Day??!!??
Happy Monday.