A new Suffolk University poll shows that Obama is crushing John McCain in Florida's early voting: 60% to 40%. And thus far early voting in Florida has equaled one-quarter of all votes cast in the state in 2004. Wow.
Looks like all the efforts by the Florida GOP to thwart early voting in the state -- such as limiting the locations for early voting and stocking the early voting sites with a clearly insufficient number of machines -- has not discouraged Obama supporters one bit. Although these numbers are encouraging, Talking Points Memo has some words of caution:
Bear in mind, it's still possible to win the early votes but lose overall -- mainly because enthusiastic Obama supporters show up to vote early, but they would have otherwise voted on Election Day if the option hadn't been available. For example, Obama won the early votes in the Texas primary in March, but Hillary Clinton won on Primary Day itself by a wide enough margin to overcome the deficit.
The new Suffolk poll also shows Obama leading McCain 49%-44% in Florida. However, in two swing counties, Hillsborough (which includes Tampa) and Monroe (in southwest Florida), they are tied up at 42% each.
Let's keep it up folks. We can win Florida!
UPDATE:
Suffolk as not yet released any detailed numbers from the poll, but from what I can gather it looks like the early-voting figures in the poll are of people who voted early by any means, either by absentee ballot or at an early voting site. I can't confirm that until I see the detailed numbers, but that is my best educated guess at the moment.