I am giving an update on the scenario as on today (28.10.2008) and i will continue to update the same till Nov 4.
Todays diary is WAPO-ABC trackers data..i will update the diary with polling result from all battle ground states EOD TILL NOV 4 along with polling results and GOOD,BAD news of the days!
More than twelve million voters have already cast ballots in the presidential contest, according to one estimate, and new data from the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll shows these voters breaking Democratic by a wide margin.
Now the break up of these 12 Million votes:
Obama : 60%
Mcshame: 39%
12 Million translates to 9% of the total registered voters.
So 60% of 12 Mn= 7.2 Million
39% of 12 Mn= 4.68 Mn
Obama's Lead: 2.52 Mn
The poll also says obama lead would be 58-39% among those who are planning to vote earlier and 51-45% lead among those who will vote on the election day.
Based on assumption that early voting till election would be 20% and subtracting the already voted 9% we will have 11% vote which will be cast before nov 4. (20% is by any means very conservative estimation)
So obamas lead will be:
9% is 12 Mn
11% is 14.66 Mn
and 58% of same is 8.50 Mn
39% of the same is 5.71 Mn
Lead: 2.71 Mn
So out of the 20% early votes Obama will have 2.71+2.52= 5.23 Mn votes LEAD!
Out of remaining 80% he can expect : 106.66 Mn
54.4 Mn for Obama
48 Mn for Mccain
so lead of 6.4 Mn
So total lead would be 9.11 Mn votes.
So can we expect Obama to win this election by a land slide of 10 Mn votes?
wait...
the 80% of the votes to be cast on Nov 4 breaks 51-45% totalling only 9%..i belive Nader even in his nadir cant get that remaining 9% same about Barr...or paul...so around 7.5% of the remaining should be undecided. What if they go against Obama?
If we consider some 6% of them to flip Mccain side, 3% to Obama side , and 5% from Obama present supporter to Mccain side and 1% from Mccain side to obama net effect would be:
6+5-3-1=7% of votes! this is equal to 7.46 Mn!!!!
Resulting in a lead of only 1.6 Mn!!!!
Add to this some small changes in the voters who would be voting from now to Nov 4....
HMMMM this is what MCCAIN is trying to do... Obama has a veryyyyy big lead...but it is not closed until it is....
Now look at Pennsylvania:
Polls after polls show huge lead for Obama consistent double digit lead! But if thats the case why would MCCAIN and Sarah REPEATEDLY campaign..why are they putting all their eggs in one BASKET? Is it worth that or are they fools?
The answer is YES AND NO!
Logically MCCAIN has no chance to win NM,NH,IO,CO and he has defend VA AND NC...the only place he can offset for his losses is PA which has to turn RED
His plan:
PA:
Population 12 + Mn
Mccain is praying that Obamas numbers and net margin wont increase beyond what Kerry had in PHILLY.
If that happens....either by our over confidence or failure to deliver votes in PHILLY THEN THE RACE BECOMES SOMEWHAT TIGHT...
Pennsylvania will be won or lost for Barack Obama in the Philly suburbs," said state Rep. Josh Shapiro of suburban Philadelphia’s Montgomery County, the third-largest county in the state after Philadelphia and Allegheny counties. YAHOO NEWS SOURCE
Lackawanna and Luzerne counties and lancaster and york counties seems to get all the attention of the world from MCCAIN camp...
also we may have to note:
Western Pennsylvania, many pols believe, seems to hold the most promise for the McCain campaign. McCain expects to run better than Bush in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County—which Kerry carried by 97,000 votes in 2004—and in southwestern Pennsylvania, where Obama lost to Clinton by landslide margins.
"Democrats who do well in areas like Johnstown, Wilkes-Barre and Pittsburgh are pro-life, pro-gun Democrats like Bob Casey. The Democrats who seem to do poorly in those areas tend to be pro-choice and questionable on guns," said Brabender. "I think people are going to be shocked by how well McCain is going to do on the western side and in the center part of the state."
While Democrats acknowledge western Pennsylvania is highly competitive, they remain confident that Obama will carry the state in the end.
http://factfinder.census.gov/...
All said and done...i hope and strongly believe Obama will prevail...but if he has to do that....GOTV till Nov 4 end!