I have a Republican friend who, believe it or not, I can have a respectful discussion about politics with. It's interesting, because of the regularity with which I have to just let an entire thread of conversation go because he's clearly living in a different reality to the one I inhabit. I promised him when I started talking politics with him that I wouldn't try to convert him to my beliefs, but simply try to understand where he's coming from and for him to understand where I'm coming from. Politics aside, he's a dear friend, so even when his political views are alien and frightening to me, I still really and genuinely do respect him, which makes for an interesting mix of feelings whenever I get a political email from him.
Anyway, I just wrote him about the GOP 2012 primary field, and after writing the email, it occurred to me it'd make an interesting diary here too. If/when he replies, I won't be posting his entire response here (I think that'd be disrespectful to do without permission, and I'm fairly sure he wouldn't give permission if asked, or appreciate the request) but depending on what he says I might post a summary.
Here's what I wrote:
I've seen a lot of speculation recently about the 2012 Republican primary field, and I'm curious how you feel about the contenders. Most of what I've read has been from the perspective of Democrats and Obama-supporting Republicans, so I'm interested in what it looks like from the other side, as it were. (Of course all this could still be moot if Obama loses this year)
Naturally I'm hoping that Obama will be somewhere between a new FDR and the left's Ronald Reagan, making the 2012 election an easy Democratic victory. What the Republicans do still matters to me though, not from a partisan Democratic perspective, but from a patriotic[1] American perspective. As I've said before, this country needs at least two strong parties. I don't want to see the Republicans relegated to a semi-permanent minority, or the Democratic party will inevitably succumb to the same malaise that has afflicted the Republicans under Bush.
Names I've heard mentioned:
Sarah Palin - I get the impression she's likely to run, and that if she runs, she'll likely be the nominee. From a partisan Democratic perspective I hope she does, because I think she'd lose the general election even more decisively than McCain. Her popularity is limited to the Republican base, and she's widely disliked by independents and moderates, even moderate Republicans. So from a patriotic American perspective I hope she doesn't run - or if she does and I'm right about the outcome, that the party learns the right lessons second time around.
Mitt Romney - not sure what to think of him as an option. I'm not sure he could ever win a Republican primary due to the Mormon issue.
Newt Gingrich - I don't know much about him because the time he was in power was before I came to this country and therefore before I knew much about US politics. I know he's widely disliked on the left, but I have no idea how the right feels about him. Or the center. Or whether he's interested.
Bobby Jindal - I don't know much about him either, but he seems like a promising candidate. He seems to have been a successful governor through difficult times and have a record of actual achievement. I saw him on TV once and he impressed me. I don't know if his achievements stand up to scrutiny though - a superficial look at Palin's record is impressive, too.
(Nobody's mentioning Ron Paul, but he'd be an interesting choice. It'd definitely be a clear sign that the Republican party had got the message that the voters were rejecting their old ideas, and were willing to reinvent themselves to be relevant again. I'm not sure if he'd win, but I'd enjoy that campaign)
And finally my Democratic-partisan nightmare - Mike Huckabee. I think he's the strongest candidate you have - he appeals to the Republican religious base but with enough personal charm to avoid alienating a lot of moderates. If Obama is the left's Reagan, he's a contender for the right's Bill Clinton. He'd signal a rejection of the unpopular Bush-Cheney-McCain "money and deregulation and war" wing of the party. If he were savvy enough to use his Christian bona-fides to "sell" the base on the need for some degree of moderateness on some issues rather than running hard-right like McCain did, and if he picked a moderate, well-respected VP candidate (Bloomberg?), he might be able to mount a serious challenge. The downside is that he might also be like Bill Clinton in that he could have electoral success without making some of the deeper changes that the party needs to be long-term relevant again. If he does have any success, there's a lot riding on what he chooses to do with that success.
[1] I know I'm not technically an American, so I'm not sure that "patriotic" is exactly the right word, but I'm not sure what the right word is for a non-American who loves America.
What do people here think of my assessment of the Republican field?