[EDIT: All times are CENTRAL. That's where I live and that's where the victory speech will be. All times based off this page.]
We're less than one week away from the election, and we're all excited to finally see a Democrat in the White House. If you've voted early like me, all that's left is the waiting.
But when will we know that Obama has won on November 4th? I've always said that it will be over the moment Missouri's polls close, but that was based on a hunch instead of fact. I decided to look at the numbers. More (including the realization that 193 EV is the magic number) after the jump.
Let's start with a simple statement: Obama needs 270 EVs to win the presidency but in fact he only needs 193 EVs before 10 pm (all times Central). CA, OR, WA, and HI have been locks for months now for a total of 77 EVs. Everyone knows that these votes will come, so Obama only needs to fill the rest before that point. 270-77 = 193.
Based on the current Pollster.com predictions, we can go through the day chronologically to chart the victory.
6 pm - VA and VT are declared Obama for 16 EV. IN is a potential gain here, but we'll keep it out of the mix at the moment.
6:30 pm - OH closes for Obama for 20 EV. Running total is 36 EV.
7 pm - The first big set of wins: CT, DE, DC, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, PA, and IL for 100 EV. Running Total 136 EV. Toss-up states are FL and MO.
7:30 pm - NC closes, but we're keeping it in the toss-up column for now.
8 pm - NY, RI, MI, MN, WI, CO, NM for 86 EV. Running total 222 EVs, which is greater than the 193 threshold.
So barring any major crisis the election can be called by 8 pm even if the broadcasters won't want to make the call yet. If Obama manages to take all of the realistic toss-up states to this point, he'll have won the election outright with 286 EV.
Unlike the last two elections, we're not in for a long night. The big question is if we'll have to wait until everyone has closed at 10 pm. Or more importantly, if I go to Grant Park next Tuesday for the celebration will I have to wait two extra hours?
Either way, it's great to feel so confident going into the elections. It's been too long.