6 days! And things in the national polls are tightening up. I am afraid the state polls will be tightening up soon. This is not good, but not unexpected.
Jump down to look at this logically and to maybe remember a few things.
Take a look at the 2004 electoral map on this date. It is a sea of dark and light red. States that will end up going for Kerry like Minnesota, Michigan, and PA had either slight Bush leads or a tie. States like Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico were small, but solid leads for Bush. And there were the bright red states like Georgia, Indiana, North Dakota, and Montona. All of these states right now are either solid Obama states, lean Obama states, or truly tossups. Very few states were solid or even small Kerry leads. Even the west coast was not solid Kerry support at this time.
If you go back and forth over the different dates in 2004, you will notice that states like WI, MN, IA, MI, PA, OH, and FL spend a lot of time flipping back and forth between Bush and Kerry. Mostly in the 'barely' category, but sometimes with a slight lead for one or the other. If you go back and forth on the 2008 map, you'll notice that not a whole lot of states have flipped back and forth for a while now. In some states (MN, WI, MI) we have expanded our leads. In others, we have maintained small leads (OH, FL, VA). But there hasn't been a whole lot of flipping yet.
We came very close in 2004, but our path to victory was like trying to thread a needle. We ended up winning Minnesota, Michigan, and PA. But it still came down to Florida and Ohio. We HAD to win one of those states.
Now, let's look at today's map. Today's map is covered in dark blue and light blue. Just looking at it, you can tell that things are so very different. We have solid (dark blue) leads in almost every state that Kerry won.
In 2004, we were able to make up deficits of 5 points or less in states like MN, MI, and PA. But we also managed to lose leads of 5 points or less in CO, IA, and OH.
Now to today, let's say that we manage to lose all of the slight Obama states as of today (that's Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida). And let's assume that we don't manage to pull out any of the slight McCain leads or ties (that's Montana, ND, MO, and GA). We still would have 311 electoral votes. That lets us lose 2 of the following 3 states---PA, VA, and OH.
What strikes me is that in 2004 (and I would venture to guess most other years) is that states with the solid leads (dark blue or red) don't switch. Right now we have dark blue leads in the entire upper midwest and the northeast. It would probably be unprecidented to lose one of these states. The McCain camp points to tightening polls in PA as their reason for contesting it. And the final results may be closer. But in the last week of the election in 2004 the state was a barely Kerry state. It was truly a toss-up. So while we might expect for things to close up in the last 6 days, it is highly unlikely that McCain can make up an 8 point lead. He could easily make up the 1-2 point lead in NC or even the 3ish point lead in Florida. But as I have discussed, we are OK without those states.