According to this poll from AP-GfK, even though Obama is ahead in all of the battleground states, there are enough undecided/other voters to make this a real nail-biter. this poll from AP-GfK,
Based on past elections, I assume about 2% of the uncommitted voters have or will vote for a third party candidate. That still leaves plenty of truly undecided voters in each tossup state.
In a worst-case-scenario, that is, if all the real undecideds go for McCain in Florida he wins by 8 points. Likewise, he takes North Carolina 50% to Obama’s 48%, and Ohio 49% to 48%. McCain could also win by 3 points in Virginia. But, he would still lose Pennsylvania and Nevada by 5 points, Colorado by 2, and New Hampshire by 11.
Using the current projections for states not in question and adding up the results above, there would be 260 electoral votes for McCain, and 278 for Obama. We win!!!