Obama back over 50% @ Zogby!!! He's currently showing it a clean Obama lead of 7%
Obama: 50.2% (49.1%)
McCain: 43.3% (44.4%)
Fuck his internals, all we give a crap about is his trend... (This is BEFORE the Obama Special because he averages prior PM with today AM to get today's #)...
and in other news, CNN has it's 2008 election tracker online now, and oddly, they don't list VA, PA, NM or CO as swing states...
Has CNN already called the election then???
Check it out for yourself....
Nate Silver rocked it tonight btw
With no fewer than 45 polls released since our last update, covering essentially all of the major swing states, we have a pretty good idea of where this race stands -- a far better idea than you'll get by trying to discern the meaning of John Zogby's divining rod or paying any attention to what you see on the front page of Drudge Report. What we can say, when we put all this information together, is that there are two things that John McCain is NOT doing.
Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama's margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now ... that's where we have it, that's where RCP has it, that where Pollster.com has it. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama's margin -- but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy.
Number two, John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most. The top tier of states in this election are Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. There is lots of lots of polling in these states, particularly in Virgnia and Pennsylvania, and it's all coming up in roughly the same range, showing Obama leads in the high single digits (in VA and CO) or the low double digits (in PA). The second tier of states is probably Ohio, Florida and Nevada. McCain seems to be getting a bit stronger in Florida; Obama seems to be getting a bit stronger in Ohio and Nevada. McCain does seem to have halted Obama's progress in some of the third-tier states, particularly Missouri and North Carolina. On the other hand, some other third-tier states, like New Mexico and particularly New Hampshire (where Obama is getting some insane numbers lately), now appear to be off the table.
Be sure to watch Rachel tonight on MSNBC interview Barack...
Update: Reuter's Write UP (Hey Zogby, but a fucking server you dolt, not cute)
It was the second consecutive day Obama's lead has grown as the two-year presidential battle draws to a close. McCain is struggling to overtake Obama's lead in every national opinion poll and in many battleground states.
"This is not good news for McCain. The race was tightening for a few days but now it is going back the other way," pollster John Zogby said.
Support for Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois, hit or exceeded the 50 percent mark for the seventh time in the last 10 days. McCain's support has not reached 46 percent in more than three weeks of polling.
Obama also moved ahead of McCain, an Arizona senator, by 5 points among men.