Yesterday, we found that CongressionalQuarterly had moved the race in the MI-09, Democratic challenger Gary Peters is taking on Republican sloth from "leans Republican" to "no clear favorite." Last night, we received more good news, as our dear friends at swingstateproject and the oracles at Cook Political Report have done likewise.
Says Cook:
HOUSE: DEMOCRATIC MOMENTUM
October 2, 2008
[...]
This Democratic uptick is just now beginning to manifest itself in House races. And in this political environment, long-serving Republicans facing their first real challenges in years have the most to lose. At this point, decade-plus GOP Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Joe Knollenberg, and Phil English can no longer be considered clear favorites in their bids for reelection. Not to be overlooked, Democratic candidates are also polling surprisingly well in the substantially GOP-leaning open seats of Reps. Ron Lewis and Steve Pearce.
RATINGS CHANGES:
MI-09 Joe Knollenberg Lean Republican to Toss Up
[...]
Democrats express optimism that this Oakland County seat includes the kind of suburban communities where Obama will do very well, and that the wide age gap between the 75-year old Knollenberg and 49-year old Peters will work in their favor.
So far, the NRCC and the Knollenberg campaign have not done much to define Peters beyond attaching him to Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm, whose popularity is waning, and disseminating a generic GOP line on taxes. In a district as marginal as this one, they may need to find a better way to make Peters an unacceptable alternative to the incumbent. This is clearly the toughest race Knollenberg has faced since he was elected.
[Emphasis added.]
Combining this with the almost bizarrely impetuous decision by the McCain campaign to pull up stakes and take their chances in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine (Maine? Really?), we're more optimistic than ever that Peters will be able to do what eight challenges have failed to do for the 16 years that Knollenberg has been representing this district.
Said James L, at swingstate:
A number of factors have contributed to our decision to shift this race over to the Tossup column, most notably being the district's Democratic trend. Al Gore lost the 9th District by 47-51 in 2000, but John Kerry made it a two-point race four years later, and it looks like this trend is set to continue at the Presidential level. Public and internal polls by EPIC-MRA and the DCCC have both shown Barack Obama leading John McCain in this district by varying margins, and private polling confirms this. Furthermore, both of the released polls of this race show a tight contest, with Knollenberg hovering around the 40% mark. That's a precarious position for any incumbent to occupy.
C'mon, don'cha wanna say you had a part in turning this seat from Red to Blue?
Peters on ActBlue
Peters for Congress