In 1996, Bill Clinton earned 379 EVs. If it’s our goal to beat that total this year, so we can earn some serious political capital and a huge mandate as kos said in Newsweek, then we gotta win West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, South Dakota, and Indiana. If we do that, then we will have 389 Electoral votes, 10 more than Bill. Nice.
The electoral math is simple. I’ve been saying for weeks that it’s all about Colorado and here we are, it really is. Colorado is the state that would put McCain over the top in the event of an utter McCain "landslide." I do give props to Virginia and Nevada too, because these are the least likely states (along with CO) to vote McCain, but which McCain needs to win.
Ergo, McCain MUST have a ridiculous victory on election night, which we know won’t happen.
If there is a(n):
Utter Obama landslide
389 EVs for Obama
Obama wins every meaningful swing state
Big Obama Night
364 EVs
Obama loses WV, ND, MT, SD, IN
Solid Obama Night
338 EVs
Obama loses MO, NC
Solid McCain Night
291 EVs
Obama loses FL, OH
Big McCain night
273 EVs
Obama loses NV, VA
Utter McCain landslide
264 EVs
Obama loses CO (and the White House)
Six predictions here, and five of them land Obama in the Oval Office, and one of them is near impossible.
I feel pretty good about Obama's chances, how bout you?