As an Arizonan, I'm thrilled with the latest round of presidential polling, showing it to be a dead heat in Arizona. This includes our local ASU Cronkite-Eight pollster and Kos's Arizona poll released today. However, I just ran across an article showing early voting patterns in Arizona's most populous county, Maricopa County, and they are a bit discouraging.
First, some other good news. Here are the latest statewide voter registration numbers in Arizona, which show the Republicans losing ground:
Republicans now make up about 37 percent of the voters in Arizona, as of the latest count from Brewer's office. Democrats represent 34 percent of the electorate, and the remaining 29 percent are independents or third party voters.
There is little shift among the Democrats' numbers. While the party touts surpassing the 1 million registered voters mark, its share of voters remains at about the same level, dropping one point from 35 percent in October of 2004 to 34 percent in October 2008.
Republicans on the other hand have shed about 8 percent of their ranks, dropping from 40 percent in 2004 to 37 percent in the latest October count.
The totals now stand at 1,118,587 Republicans, 1,022,252 Democrats, 824,450 independents and less than 25,000 either Green or Libertarian.
Between the last presidential election and this one, the Democrats have upped their registration 107,988 to the Republicans' increase of 63,335 over the same period.
Now here are the latest early voting numbers for Arizona's most populous county, Maricopa County (graph first):
Sadly:
Republicans, who hold a lopsided registration advantage over Democrats, are maintaining that proportional edge based on the number of early ballots that have been mailed out, and the number that have been returned. While both parties, as well as independents, are setting records in terms of early voting, Republicans in Maricopa County have cast tens of thousands more ballots than Democrats, said Yvonne Reed of the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office.
The results, said some political observers, show that the record number of voters expected to participate this year may not help Democrats as they seek to win a number of key races at the county level.
"This is one election year where a high turnout won’t benefit the Democrats," said Bruce Merrill, a Valley pollster and Arizona State University professor. "The closer you get to 100 percent, the more it will reflect the voter registration advantage, which favors Republicans."
The good news that voter turnout is already at record highs in Maricopa County:
County election officials are anticipating a record number of voters to show up at the polls on Tuesday. Some experts have predicted as many as 80 to 85 percent of the county’s 1.7 million registered voters will participate.
Already, early polling stations throughout the Valley have seen long lines and waits as long as 90 minutes to vote. Of the 823,185 early ballot requests, more than half a million have been cast, county officials said Thursday .
In addition, anecdotal stories indicate that moderate Republicans might be voting for Obama in Arizona, and recent polling indicates that Independents are voting 60-40 in favor of Obama.
I don't have early voting numbers for other counties in Arizona, including the overwhelmingly Democratic Pima County (home of Tucson). Recent polling there shows approximately a 15% edge for Obama in Pima County.
So although the overall polling numbers look great for Arizona, it will be a squeaker if we win. We will need last minute voters to break heavily for Obama, and counties other than Maricopa County to help put him over the top.