Four Days to Go.
An earlier Diary got me thinking.
State Polls
So, I decided to do some spreadsheet analysis. I'm sure the Big Guys at 538 and other sites have done the heavy lifting but I thought I would take a quick look.
More Math Below....
Since I've been following Nate and 538 pretty closely I began to wonder how the state polls reflect then national polls. How would a big win in California for Barack balance out against a big win for McC in Wyoming.
So, I started with the state census estimates for 2007 and guessed at turnout. Multiplied by the 538 current guesses for results and came up with a national estimate for Obama. But, then I came across a link on 538 to a cool website that had good data on turnout. Check out Prof McDonald's US Election Project Website!
2004 Turn Out
So, I redid the spreadsheet based upon the actual turnout and voting age population in the Professor's tables.
Re-ran the data and voila - my estimate, based upon the 2004 turnout data has Barack at 52.4% of the Vote. With Barr et. al getting about 1% that leaves McC with 46.6%.
I'll take It. Besides, for now the popular vote doesn't matter - the Electoral College matters.
Some interesting facts. Hawaii had the lowest turnout in '04. Hey you guys in Hawaii, make sure you get off the beach and vote this year! Highest turnout in '04 - Minnesota! Congrats.
If anyone knows how to load a spreadsheet onto Kos and wants to give me a hand let me know.
Obama/Biden '08
Peace