Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14-16 results)
Senate
Stevens (R) 36 (46)
Begich (D) 58 (48)
House at-large district
Young (R) 44 (44)
Berkowitz (D) 53 (50)
The biggest tactical blunder of this election was Stevens pushing for a speedy trial. Had he not panicked post-indictment and held steady, campaigning at home, he may have pulled this off. The trends were definitely headed that direction. Instead, his conviction has made him dead man walking while giving the Democrats a boost in the House race as well. Wow, what drama! You can see the reason for the topline results in Stevens' favorability numbers:
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens?
Favorable/Favorable:
Republicans: 65/34 (71/26)
Demcorats: 8/91 (15/81)
Independents: 37/62 (41/53)
That's a net 14-point swing among Republicans, 17 points among Democrats, and 13 points among Independents. Kind of hard to recover from that, no matter how hilariously pathetic Stevens' spin becomes:
With just four days before the election and Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens insisting he's not a felon, the U.S. Senate race is white hot.
"I've not been convicted yet," Stevens said Thursday in a meeting with the editorial board of the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. "There's not a black mark by my name yet, until the appeal is over and I am finally convicted, if that happens. If that happens, of course I'll do what's right for Alaska and for the Senate. ... I don't anticipate it happening, and until it happens I do not have a black mark."
Stevens reiterated that position during a televised debate late Thursday night, declaring early in the give-and-take with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, "I have not been convicted of anything."
Meanwhile, Palin is no longer the nation's most popular governor. At least one -- Arizona's Janet Napolitano -- sports better numbers. Full crosstabs, as usual, below the fold.
On the web:
Mark Begich for Senate
Ethan Berkowitz for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue page
ALASKA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from October 28 through October
30, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 289 (49%)
Women 311 (51%)
Democrats 134 (22%)
Republicans 183 (31%)
Independents/Other 283 (47%)
18-29 109 (18%)
30-44 207 (35%)
45-59 190 (32%)
60+ 94 (15%)
Anchorage 285 (48%)
Central/Other 97 (16%)
Fairbanks/Juneau 218 (36%)
U.S CONGRESS:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 22% 35% 23% 17% 3%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 57% 40% 3%
MEN 54% 44% 2%
WOMEN 60% 36% 4%
DEMOCRATS 83% 15% 2%
REPUBLICANS 32% 61% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 61% 37% 2%
18-29 68% 30% 2%
30-44 53% 44% 3%
45-59 59% 39% 2%
60+ 48% 47% 5%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 9% 30% 38% 22% 1%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 39% 60% 1%
MEN 46% 53% 1%
WOMEN 32% 67% 1%
DEMOCRATS 8% 91% 1%
REPUBLICANS 65% 34% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 37% 62% 1%
18-29 30% 69% 1%
30-44 43% 55% 2%
45-59 38% 61% 1%
60+ 46% 53% 1%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Ethan Berkowitz the Democrat or Don Young the Republican?
BERKOWITZ YOUNG UNDECIDED
ALL 53% 44% 3%
MEN 49% 48% 3%
WOMEN 56% 41% 3%
DEMOCRATS 90% 7% 3%
REPUBLICANS 17% 80% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 59% 38% 3%
18-29 57% 38% 5%
30-44 52% 46% 2%
45-59 54% 43% 3%
60+ 49% 48% 3%
ANCHORAGE 54% 44% 2%
CENTRAL/OTHER 44% 49% 7%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 56% 41% 3%
U.S. SENATE:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 22% 35% 21% 13% 9%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 57% 34% 9%
MEN 53% 39% 8%
WOMEN 61% 29% 10%
DEMOCRATS 86% 10% 4%
REPUBLICANS 32% 60% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 60% 29% 11%
18-29 63% 30% 7%
30-44 53% 37% 10%
45-59 61% 31% 8%
60+ 51% 39% 10%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 9% 25% 34% 31% 1%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 34% 65% 1%
MEN 35% 63% 2%
WOMEN 33% 67% -
DEMOCRATS 8% 91% 1%
REPUBLICANS 63% 36% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 28% 71% 1%
18-29 25% 73% 2%
30-44 40% 59% 1%
45-59 28% 71% 1%
60+ 42% 57% 1%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Mark Begich the Democrat or Ted Stevens the Republican?
BEGICH STEVENS UNDECIDED
ALL 58% 36% 6%
MEN 52% 43% 5%
WOMEN 64% 29% 7%
DEMOCRATS 91% 4% 5%
REPUBLICANS 22% 72% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 66% 27% 7%
18-29 66% 27% 7%
30-44 53% 40% 7%
45-59 60% 35% 5%
60+ 53% 42% 5%
ANCHORAGE 60% 34% 6%
CENTRAL/OTHER 49% 46% 5%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 59% 35% 6%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 58% 39% 1% 2%
MEN 62% 35% 1% 2%
WOMEN 54% 43% 1% 2%
DEMOCRATS 12% 86% 1% 1%
REPUBLICANS 90% 7% 1% 2%
OTHER 56% 40% 1% 3%
18-29 49% 49% 1% 1%
30-44 64% 32% 1% 3%
45-59 57% 41% 1% 1%
60+ 62% 35% 1% 2%
ANCHORAGE 58% 39% 1% 2%
CENTRAL/OTHER 61% 36% 1% 2%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 57% 41% 1% 1%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 19% 46% 24% 11%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 65% 35% -
MEN 67% 33% -
WOMEN 63% 37% -
DEMOCRATS 31% 69% -
REPUBLICANS 95% 5% -
INDEPENDENTS 62% 38% -
18-29 59% 41% -
30-44 70% 30% -
45-59 63% 37% -
60+ 68% 32% -
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sarah Palin is doing as Governor?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 61% 37% 2%
MEN 63% 35% 2%
WOMEN 59% 39% 2%
DEMOCRATS 26% 73% 1%
REPUBLICANS 92% 6% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 41% 2%
18-29 55% 43% 2%
30-44 66% 32% 2%
45-59 59% 38% 3%
60+ 64% 35% 1%