Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/30-10/1. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
O2B candidate Dan Seals is back for a rematch after coming up short by 53-47 in 2006. IL-10 is the fourth most Democratic district held by a Republican in the entire nation, one that Kerry won in 53-47. And given it's in Obama-crazy Illinois, a great opportunity for a pickup.
This is a heavily Jewish district, just north of Chicago on the lakefront. Given that the poll was conducted during Rosh Hashanah, when many observant (and Democratic-leaning) Jews wouldn't pick up the phone, the numbers may be even better for Seals.
Regardless, these are fantastic numbers for Seals. Kirk is well under the magical 50 percent mark, while the Democrats and Independents have more undecideds than Republicans. Kirk's favorability numbers among Independents (42-42) suggests further gains among that demographic are possible, while those among Democrats (32-55) suggests that Kirk's historically high popularity among Democrats is finally starting to fade. And Democrats (60-15) and Independents (41-27) sure do like Seals.
To win, Seals must further erode Kirk's support among Independents and even Democrats (currently at 12 percent), while getting his name ID up with his district's electorate (29 percent don't know him, including 32 percent of Independents). We can help finance his efforts to get the word out and educate the district about the Seals agenda. Given an educated choice, Kirk doesn't stand a chance.
So throw Republican Mark Kirk an anvil.
Crosstabs beneath the fold.
IL-10 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Tenth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 30 and October 1, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 193 (48%)
Women 207 (52%)
Democrats 139 (35%)
Republicans 115 (29%)
Independents/Other 146 (36%)
18-29 76 (19%)
30-44 128 (32%)
45-59 124 (31%)
60+ 72 (18%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Kirk? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 33% 31% 9% 15%
MEN 13% 36% 29% 8% 14%
WOMEN 11% 30% 33% 10% 16%
DEMOCRATS 6% 26% 42% 13% 13%
REPUBLICANS 22% 43% 15% 5% 15%
INDEPENDENTS 10% 32% 33% 9% 16%
18-29 9% 30% 35% 11% 15%
30-44 15% 35% 30% 9% 11%
45-59 13% 34% 29% 8% 16%
60+ 11% 33% 29% 8% 19%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dan Seals? (If favorableor unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 9% 34% 21% 7% 29%
MEN 8% 30% 25% 10% 27%
WOMEN 10% 38% 17% 4% 31%
DEMOCRATS 15% 45% 12% 3% 25%
REPUBLICANS 4% 22% 34% 12% 28%
INDEPENDENTS 8% 33% 20% 7% 32%
18-29 12% 37% 18% 6% 27%
30-44 9% 34% 21% 6% 30%
45-59 8% 33% 22% 8% 29%
60+ 8% 32% 23% 8% 29%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Dan Seals the Democrat or Mark Kirk the Republican?
KIRK SEALS OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 44% 38% 2% 16%
MEN 47% 36% 2% 15%
WOMEN 41% 40% 2% 17%
DEMOCRATS 12% 70% 2% 16%
REPUBLICANS 81% 5% 1% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 34% 3% 18%
18-29 41% 41% 2% 16%
30-44 43% 38% 3% 16%
45-59 46% 37% 3% 14%
60+ 46% 35% 3% 16%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 38% 3% 9%
MEN 46% 43% 4% 7%
WOMEN 54% 33% 2% 11%
DEMOCRATS 83% 7% 2% 8%
REPUBLICANS 10% 78% 3% 9%
OTHER 51% 36% 3% 10%
18-29 54% 34% 3% 9%
30-44 51% 38% 4% 7%
45-59 48% 40% 3% 9%
60+ 47% 41% 2% 10%