Monday, we were told. Monday was the day that the full effect of the Biden-Palin showdown (viewed by 70 million folks) would be known. Frank Luntz on Fox News even breathlessly told us to "watch the polls over the next 48 hours."
This, we were told, would be a game changer. Well, on that they may well have been right. Today's raft of polling (four national polls, 24 individual polls, plus the daily tracking) shows a game that is edging closer to over for the GOP.
With virtually no exceptions, the numbers today are very, very good. Follow me for all of it.
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
The "big four" tracking polls made little movement today, which is good for Democrats, given Obama's sizeable advantage in them. The overall average lead for Obama edged out to a record lead of 8.50%. While Research 2000 stayed the same (O+12), both Rasmussen (O+8) and Gallup (O+8) showed Obama moving up by a single points. Only Diageo/Hotline had Obama losing ground, and even that was by a single point (O+6). Side note--the Diageo/Hotline tracking has the most absurd internals I have ever seen. Does anyone buy McCain up one on who would better handle the economy? Or, for that matter, McCain being up just three points on foreign affairs?
Meanwhile, a trio of national polls out today also confirm the Obama lead. Somewhat ironically, a Democratic poll (Democracy Corps.) had the most sober numbers for Obama, though it still showed a three-point lead for him. CNN had very few undecideds, and had Barack Obama at his highest number in recent memory--courting 53% of the vote to just 45% for John McCain. Meanwhile, NBC just released their polling numbers, and they show a boost for Obama from their previous numbers. Whereas once they projected just a two-point lead for the Democrat, they now show Obama leading McCain by 6%, with Obama earning 49% and McCain behind at 43%. CBS came in late in the day, and had the race at four points (Obama 47-43).
A couple of important points in that national polling. First, I projected in another diary yesterday that McCain would likely cut the Obama lead to five points in Gallup's tracking. I based that judgment on the fact that Gallup hinted at their day-to-day numbers in yesterday's release, positing that Obama had big leads on October 1st and 2nd. They also said that Obama's lead had receded slightly on the 3rd and 4th of October. Based on the expectation that a big Obama night was falling off, I figured yesterday's seven-point gap would tighten. Instead, the lead stretched back to eight points. The moral of the story: Obama had a big night in Gallup's tracking last night.
The second point--we are starting to see again that John McCain may have a ceiling in this election. In the four tracking polls, McCain is sitting somewhere between 40-44% of the vote. In the three national polls, he fares only slightly better, ranging from 43% at the lowest and 46% at the highest. If this ceiling hardens, this could be a respectable margin of victory for Obama in four weeks.
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLING
The day got off to an early start with some holy shit numbers: up 13 in Virginia, only down seven in Georgia. The hits rolled throughout the day (+13 in New Hampshire, another poll with +10 in Virginia). And then Rasmussen put the icing on the cake with a couple numbers of their own (+7 in Florida, +3 in Missouri, +6 in Colorado, and a late one courtesy of Hope Reborn...ABC has Obama +6 in Ohio!!).
Heading into the second debate, Obama's electoral map looks better than it has at any point in the 2008 election cycle. McCain, once again, is hunting for game changers.
With new numbers in eleven states, ten of them show momentum to Obama (based on the Pollster trend composites) while just one--New Mexico--shows a slight favor to McCain.
COLORADO--Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (Obama)
FLORIDA--Rasmussenn: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, Others 1% (Obama)
GEORGIA--Research 2000: McCain 50%, Obama 43%, Others 3% (Obama)
MAINE--Mellman Group (D): Obama 52%, McCain 35% (Obama)
MISSOURI--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, Others 2% (Obama)
NEW HAMPSHIRE--SurveyUSA: Obama 53%, McCain 40%, Others 5% (Obama)
NEW MEXICO--Albuquerque Journal: Obama 45%, McCain 40% (McCain)
NORTH CAROLINA--PPP: Obama 50%, McCain 44% (Obama)
OHIO #1--ABC: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, Others 2% (Obama)
OHIO #2--Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, Others 2%
PENNSYLVANIA--Muhlenberg College: Obama 49%, McCain 38%, Others 3% (Obama)
VIRGINIA #1--Suffolk University: Obama 51%, McCain 39% (Obama)
VIRGINIA #2--SurveyUSA: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, Others 3%
VIRGINIA #3--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 48%, Others 1%
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
These numbers ain't so bad, either. A couple of very affirming House internals (though, it must be said, they ARE internals), as well as some very nice Senate polling. Bon Appetit!!
GA-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 45%, Jim Martin (D) 44%
ME-SEN #1--Rasmussen: Sen. Susan Collins (R) 53%, Tom Allen (D) 43%
ME-SEN #2--Mellman Group (D): Sen. Susan Collins (R) 49%, Tom Allen (D) 41%
MN-03--Bennett Pitts (D): Ashwin Madia (D) 44%, Erik Paulsen (R) 39%
NH-SEN--SurveyUSA: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 40%
NM-SEN--Albuquerque Journal: Tom Udall (D) 51%, Steve Pearce (R) 36%
NY-29--Benenson (D): Eric Massa (D) 47%, Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) 42%
NC-SEN--PPP: Kay Hagan (D) 49%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 40%
VA-SEN #1--Suffolk University: Mark Warner (D) 57%, Jim Gilmore (R) 25%
VA-SEN #2--SurveyUSA: Mark Warner (D) 61%, Jim Gilmore (R) 31%
By the way, if you are privy to new numbers, please let me know, and I will update as needed. Some of them I might have already covered in previous diaries, but some may very well be new information (especially internal polling and the like).
Twenty-nine days to victory, all...this could get mighty interesting.