A few weeks ago, after McCain's convention bounce had begone to fade, but before Obama had regained his standing in the state by state polls, I remarked that Virginia is the bellweather of this election. At the time, Obama was trending back up in Virginia, giving my confidence he would soon lead McCain in other more favorable battlegrounds.
Over the past two weeks, I've watched as Obama has opened up a small lead over McCain in the Old Dominion. However, Obama's lead remained, at best, just barely outside the margin of error.
So imaging my shock today, when I checked the state-by-state polls on Realclearpolitics, and found these results.
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/27 - 10/05 -- 49.9 45.1 Obama +4.8
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV 50 48 Obama +2
SurveyUSA 10/04 - 10/05 666 LV 53 43 Obama +10
Suffolk 10/03 - 10/05 600 LV 51 39 Obama +12
Mason-Dixon 09/29 - 10/01 625 LV 45 48 McCain +3
CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 684 LV 53 44 Obama +9
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 436 LV 51 45 Obama +6
ARG 09/27 - 09/29 600 LV 46 49 McCain +3
That's two polls showing double digit leads for Obama, and one showing Obama just one point shy of double digits. Note also that the two double digit polls are more recent than some of the less favorable numbers.
So what does this mean? The fact three polls are showing statistically significant leads for Obama in VA means Obama has opened a clear advantage over McCain. How big that advantage actually is will become clear over the next few days as more polls come out.
If the more favorable poll numbers for Obama are confirmed by additional polls, this is striking. As I said weeks ago, Virginia is the bellwether for this election. How well Obama can do there will tell us a lot about how well he'll do in Ohio, Florida, Indiana etc. etc. If Obama is anywhere close to double digits in VA, it means the race has shifted so dramatically in Obama's favor that a substantial popular vote win for Obama becomes likely, and an electoral college landslide becomes a distinct, though less likely, possibility.
I don't want to overstate the landslide possibility, but when a state that hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election in my life time is posting double digit numbers fo Obama it means McCain has already lost several must win states, and is in dire trouble in several states he should win easily.
The race is fluid, but if the election were held tomorrow, it would be a blowout for Obama.