Yesterday Kos posted a commentary regarding the GA-Sen race, noting that progressive Democratic challenger Jim Martin is essentially tied in the polls with His Evilness Saxby Chambliss. He also noted that polling may likely be significantly underestimating African American turnout to be in the range of 24-27%. From a purely anecdotal perpective from the ground, I can say that Kos is absolutely correct that those numbers may be significantly underestimating African American turnout. In fact, IMHO the African American turnout in GA will be a total blowout!
more on the flip:
Yesterday I went to the DeKalb County Voter office in Decatur to cast my early vote and was absolutely overwhelmed by what I saw. Traffic in and out of the facilty parking lock was pure gridlock and obviously a precursor to what I saw inside. Lines snaked throughout the interior of the building in a well organized and coordinated manner, but what was shocking was the pure volume of people. At least 800 were in line at the time I was in the facility based on my best guestimate. I spoke with several pollworkers and one told me they anticipated processing 10000+ voters yesterday on top of 26000 processed between the beginning of early voting on Sept. 22 through last Friday. Not only was the sheer volume of people a sight to behold, but the demographic mix was even more incredible. In a county that is 55% African American, at least 95% of voters participating in the early voting program yesterday were African American! Another pollworker who told me he had been voluteering for years, said that he had never, ever seen such overwhelming turnout and enthusiasm.
Granted, yesterday was the last day for new voter registration in GA, but the line to the new voter registration desk was relatively small. The overwhelming majority of voters in line were already registered.
My only regret yesterday was that I didn't bring a camera to record the impact of what I saw. The passion and excitement of the men and women waiting in line to vote was palpable. Although many anecdotal stories never bear fruition in the big picture, I am going to go out on a limb and forecast that African American turnout in GA will blow way past forecasts, based on what I saw yesterday. If that happens, coupled with lack of passion on the part of Rethugs/Fundies, Saxby Chambliss is toast and Barack Obama could pull a surprise upset.
According the Atlanta Journal Constitution in this article here, the Georgia Secretary of State is estimating a very disproportionately high 39% of early voters are African Americans. The African American community represents 29% of registered voters in GA and cast 25% of the vote in the 2004 Presidential election.
This is all happening for a reason. The state Democratic Party and the Obama campaign have operated a well organized effort to register new voters and get them to the polls and the effort has paid off.....
"Don't Wait in '08" Program
Also, according to the AJC:
Local party officials have been pushing early voting.
Melanie Goux. a vice chairman of the Fulton County Democratic Party said party officials launched a program months ago — Don’t Wait In 08 — to encourage early voting and registration.
The program is deliberately low-tech, and aimed at an audience that won’t be reached by the Obama campaign’s web-based get-out-the-vote efforts, Goux said.
"The African American community is not a monolith," Goux said. "We have a large section that is affluent and can be reached through the Internet. And we have a section that is low tech. We need to get the information to people who don’t use the web."
DeKalb, Gwinnett and Cobb counties have all launched early voting programs modeled on Fulton’s, Goux said.
Couple a blowout African American turnout with predictably strong performance in the Liberal enclaves of Atlanta, Athens and to some extent Savannah, we can win this thing. Don't write Georgia off. We can win here.
UPDATE 1
Don't forget to show Jim Martin some love. He's outfunded 2:1 by Saxby Chambliss and needs everyone's help to keep his outstanding ads on the air. Consider a donation to Jim, no matter how large or small, here.
Update 2
Hat tip to Jorybu for this article here
from fivethiryeight.com which underscores the thought that GA is winnable.
Update 3
See more commentary and pictures of the line in Socratic's diary here.
Crossposted at Tondees Tavern.