Introduction
Bored with the debate from last night, I went on a lark and looked back at the 2004 election. On this day in 2004, polls were predicting a narrow Kerry win, which sadly did not pan out.
For each state, I compared the difference between the October 8 polling and the final result to get a sense of how the undecided voters in each state eventually lined up. That led to a wholly unscientific measurement I call:
The Creep Index
For each state, I compared the margin in the polls on October 8 with the actual margin on Election Day. I'll use my home state, Virginia, as an example:
(read on...)
On October 8, 2004, the polling composite was Kerry 47-Bush 50, for a margin of +3 for Bush.
The actual election results in 2004 were Kerry 45-Bush 54, for a margin of +9 for Bush.
The six-point shift, I'm calling Virginia's Creep Index for October 8, named for all those undecided creeps that broke the wrong way. (Y'all can call it whatever you like, though.)
Each state's Creep Index should (theoretically) shrink as November 4 draws closer and the undecided voters start to make up their minds.
Applying 2004's Creep Index to 2008's polls
So what I did with these indices is looked at today's polling composite and used each state's Creep Index to extrapolate what might happen on election day. Again, using Virginia as an example:
Today's polling composite has Obama ahead 51-45. Applying a six-point shift for my state in McCain's favor would result in Virginia being tied on election day.
Obviously, this is just an extrapolation and I'm making no claims to its validity, although the results "feel right" for Virginia -- I think we'll be much closer than six points.
So what's this about Georgia?
As it turns out, if you apply this Creep Index to each state's polling composite,
- Three states flip from blue to red: Colorado, Michigan, and Missouri.
- Three states flip from blue to toss-up: Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.
- One state flips from toss-up to red: North Carolina.
- One state flips from red to blue: Georgia
That's right: Between October 8, 2004 and November 7, 2004, the race in Georgia tightened by eight points. Current polling in Georgia shows Obama down by just seven points.
Is it possible that eight more points could be found in this red, red state between now and November 4?
Well, maybe...maybe not, but it's sure nice to think that we could have a battleground in such an unexpected place.
For all you math junkies, the raw data:
| 04 poll K | 04 poll B | 04 act K | 04 act B | Creep | 08 poll O | 08 poll M | 08 margin | margin/Creep |
AL | 34 | 62 | 37 | 63 | –2 | 37 | 62 | –25 | –23 |
AK | 30 | 57 | 35 | 62 | 0 | 40 | 55 | –15 | –15 |
AZ | 38 | 48 | 45 | 55 | 0 | 38 | 52 | –14 | –14 |
AR | 47 | 47 | 45 | 54 | 9 | 42 | 52 | –10 | –19 |
CA | 51 | 43 | 55 | 44 | –3 | 55 | 39 | 16 | 19 |
CO | 48 | 48 | 46 | 53 | 7 | 49 | 45 | 4 | –3 |
CT | 47 | 38 | 54 | 44 | –1 | 52 | 37 | 15 | 16 |
DE | 45 | 38 | 53 | 46 | 0 | 57 | 37 | 20 | 20 |
DC | 78 | 11 | 90 | 9 | –14 | 82 | 13 | 69 | 83 |
FL | 44 | 49 | 47 | 52 | 0 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 4 |
GA | 33 | 58 | 41 | 58 | –8 | 44 | 51 | –7 | 1 |
HI | 51 | 41 | 54 | 45 | 1 | 68 | 27 | 41 | 40 |
ID | 30 | 59 | 30 | 69 | 10 | 33 | 62 | –29 | –39 |
IL | 55 | 39 | 55 | 45 | 6 | 54 | 40 | 14 | 8 |
IN | 39 | 58 | 39 | 60 | 2 | 46 | 48 | –2 | –4 |
IA | 48 | 47 | 49 | 50 | 2 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 10 |
KS | 35 | 57 | 37 | 62 | 3 | 40 | 56 | –16 | –19 |
KY | 38 | 57 | 40 | 60 | 1 | 42 | 53 | –11 | –12 |
LA | 42 | 50 | 42 | 57 | 7 | 40 | 55 | –15 | –22 |
ME | 49 | 47 | 53 | 45 | –6 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 11 |
MD | 52 | 42 | 56 | 43 | –3 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 22 |
MA | 64 | 27 | 62 | 37 | 12 | 56 | 39 | 17 | 5 |
MI | 52 | 42 | 51 | 48 | 7 | 49 | 43 | 6 | –1 |
MN | 50 | 43 | 51 | 48 | 4 | 52 | 42 | 10 | 6 |
MS | 42 | 51 | 40 | 60 | 11 | 44 | 52 | –8 | –19 |
MO | 47 | 49 | 46 | 53 | 5 | 50 | 48 | 2 | –3 |
MT | 36 | 54 | 38 | 59 | 3 | 44 | 52 | –8 | –11 |
NE | 30 | 61 | 32 | 67 | 4 | 37 | 56 | –19 | –23 |
NV | 48 | 47 | 48 | 51 | 4 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 0 |
NH | 47 | 47 | 50 | 49 | –1 | 53 | 43 | 10 | 11 |
NJ | 48 | 41 | 53 | 47 | 1 | 51 | 40 | 11 | 10 |
NM | 46 | 47 | 49 | 50 | 0 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 6 |
NY | 53 | 41 | 58 | 41 | –5 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 26 |
NC | 45 | 52 | 44 | 56 | 5 | 48 | 48 | 0 | –5 |
ND | 33 | 62 | 36 | 63 | –2 | 42 | 53 | –11 | –9 |
OH | 48 | 47 | 49 | 51 | 3 | 49 | 46 | 3 | 0 |
OK | 33 | 63 | 34 | 66 | 2 | 32 | 65 | –33 | –35 |
OR | 54 | 44 | 52 | 48 | 6 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 6 |
PA | 48 | 46 | 51 | 49 | 0 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 12 |
RI | 55 | 37 | 60 | 39 | –3 | 48 | 26 | 22 | 25 |
SC | 41 | 53 | 41 | 58 | 5 | 41 | 54 | –13 | –18 |
SD | 40 | 52 | 38 | 60 | 10 | 39 | 55 | –16 | –26 |
TN | 39 | 58 | 43 | 57 | –5 | 39 | 57 | –18 | –13 |
TX | 37 | 58 | 38 | 61 | 2 | 43 | 52 | –9 | –11 |
UT | 27 | 64 | 26 | 71 | 8 | 28 | 64 | –36 | –44 |
VT | 50 | 40 | 59 | 39 | –10 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 28 |
VA | 47 | 50 | 45 | 54 | 6 | 51 | 45 | 6 | 0 |
WA | 49 | 44 | 53 | 46 | –2 | 53 | 43 | 10 | 12 |
WV | 44 | 50 | 43 | 56 | 7 | 44 | 50 | –6 | –13 |
WI | 48 | 44 | 50 | 49 | 3 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 5 |
WY | 29 | 65 | 29 | 69 | 4 | 36 | 57 | –21 | –25 |