McCain and the Republicans are trying to scare people by trying to argue that Obama is "inexperienced," or "not one of us," or worse.
But how many McCain voters, seething in their tribal urges to sock-it to supposed "elitists" and (cough) "socialists" have really contemplated what would happen with a McCain-Palin victory?
Consider the following plausible scenario of the first 90 days following a McCain election (below the fold):
November 5, 2008 - secretaries of state in 6 "battleground" states are unable to certify results, leaving the actual outcome in question. Republican swat teams, modeled on the Bush-GOP Florida rapid-response in 2000, besiege state capitals staging phony riots that soon become real riots in 12 cities, with hundreds of casualties. The national guard is deployed in 11 states. All-told, 17 separate lawsuits are filed challenging procedures and results. Global stock markets plunge ~15% on the chaos, the threat that the outcome will remain unresolved into late December, and the growing likelihood that another 4 years of paralyzing gridlock will emerge in Washington.
In an oval office speech, George W. Bush appeals for calm.
November 7, 2008 - Republican-appointed judges rule in favor of Republican-filed lawsuits in enough states to give McCain an apparent victory. Global stock markets plunge an average of another 22% as investors see the outcome as validation that the United States will now flounder for years in the worsening financial crisis.
In a Rose Garden speech, George W. Bush appeals for calm.
November 8, 2008 - Phil Gramm is announced as head of the McCain transition team. Over the following month the team will announce a cabinet lineup that will prominently include Joe Lieberman as a nominee for Secretary of State, and Gramm himself as a prospective Secretary of Treasury. McCain asks Gates and Mukasey to continue in their current roles at DoD and DoJ.
November 28, 2008 - With a new "status of forces agreement" in Iraq completely ruled out, President-elect McCain demands an extension of the UN mandate in Iraq, threatening to withdraw the United States from the United Nations if his terms are not met.
December 2, 2008 - Privy to emerging data on the collapse of retail spending in the holiday season, McCain announces a "main street stimulus package." Within days, analysts conclude that it is really a large package of political payback tax breaks to large corporations that will have no useful stimulus impact. It is dead on arrival on Capitol Hill. McCain issues promises to veto alternative Democratic "pork-barrel" legislation.
December 4, 2008 - Initial reports on holiday shopping show a mind-boggling 30% year-over-year decline. With no prospect of a real main-street stimulus package in the US, manufacturers around the globe begin planning and implementing emergency cost-cutting initiatives that ultimately lead to a 20%-25% reduction in global manufacturing jobs and output. Service industries quickly follow suit.
In a White House library speech, George W. Bush appeals for calm (and misquotes Franklin Delano Roosevelt).
December 5, 2008 - Reacting to the spiraling economic collapse, more than 300 financial and insurance companies are either further nationalized, or file for bankruptcy protection (with an estimated 1/3 of all hedge funds teetering on the brink of collapse). Among the casualties are General Motors and Ford, which both miss payroll. The US completely taps out the financial industry "rescue package" funding, not counting another $225 billion that is injected into AIG.
In a Camp David speech, George W. Bush appeals for calm.
December 11, 2008 - Secretary of Defense Gates (after Camp David sessions with the President-elect) unexpectedly announces that he will not accept McCain's request to stay on.
December 12, 2008 - A new report finds that the number of US mortgages "below water" -- where more is owed on the mortgage than the property is worth - has risen from 20% to 33%.
In a speech from his Texas ranch, George W. Bush appeals for calm.
December 17, 2008 - An emergency global summit on the financial collapse breaks down when Bush and McCain officials walk out on talks, reiterating their conviction that "socialism" is not the answer to "these problems." Analysts point out that the officials broadly mis-characterize initiatives on the table and question whether the US delegation really even understood the proposals.
In a primetime address from Dick Cheney's undisclosed location, George W. Bush appeals for calm.
January 11, 2009 - a cover story in Time Magazine reveals that the chaos that characterized the McCain campaign - particularly the inability to formulate a strategy and stick to it - appears to be carrying over into the administration itself, with the transition team squabbling bitterly, unable to make decisions, and consistently missing internal deadlines. McCain blames these reports on liberal media bias.
January 20, 2009 - In his inaugural address, McCain issues an ultimatum to Iran to completely suspend its nuclear program or face immediate consequences, hinting at the possibility of pre-emptive nuclear strikes, and explicitly refusing to rule out civilian targets. McCain's statements are universally condemned by other world leaders.
Later, in a background session, a senior McCain advisor suggests that the United Nations has "outlived its usefulness" and that the new Administration may abandon efforts to extend the status of forces agreement in Iraq, expressing confidence that "no other country is about to do anything about it." Increasing evidence emerges that the new Administration intends to use Iraq as a staging ground to attack Iran. Leading investigative reporters who argue this case are detained for questioning by the FBI.
By now, trading has been suspended on most major stock markets around the world and all inter-bank, and private-sector commercial lending has essentially come to a standstill.
Analysts highlight an emerging crisis around the world, as many farmers report that they are unable to finance the planting of spring crops.
January 21, 2009 - To counter spiraling unemployment, to address over-extension of US forces, and "to deal with these troubling times," McCain proposes a new military draft of 18-25 year-olds, and a new GI Bill (promising that details of the latter will follow).
George W. Bush kicks off a 5-day tour of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates where he will deliver 5 speeches, and attend 6 private receptions for a reported speaker's fee of $2 million. FOX News offers extensive coverage of the trip, hailing it as a "victory lap."
January 22, 2009 - A planned auction of US treasury bonds is cancelled when it emerges there will not be enough bidders to conduct the auction. A trickle of investors, that will later become a torrent, begins trying to dump US treasuries to try to escape growing risk of a massive US government default. Emergency swat teams in Congress and the Administration assemble to construct emergency budget-cutting bills that will soon slash programs across the board, cutting most deeply into entitlements such as Medicare.
In an oval office speech, John S. McCain appeals for calm.
January 23, 2009 - An internal administration memo is leaked to the Washington Post forecasting that first-quarter GDP may decline at an annual rate of "15% - 20%." McCain fires the economists who wrote the memo, including two of his top three economic advisors.
January 27, 2009 - McClatchy newspapers report McCain has had a recurrence of his melanoma, and that it has been diagnosed as Stage IV (metastatic), which has a typical median survival of 11 months. The Administration initially denies the report.
January 28, 2009 - The McCain adminsitration is forced to confirm the melanoma recurrence. It later emerges that the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal have had the story for more than 3 weeks and buried it under threat of lawsuits and concerns expressed by their boards of deepening the financial panic.
McCain announces his intent to resolve the Iran nuclear crisis "if its the last thing I do."
Vice President Palin, who has kept a low profile throughout the transition, is thrust into seclusion (described as "policy boot-camp") and will be unavailable for comment for more than a week.
February 3, 2009 - Well, what do you suppose happens next?
At the end of the day, here's my question for long-term Republicans:
When you do a gut-check, in the still of night after tucking your kids into bed, do you really think McCain and Palin are up to the challenges we face?
Do you really think they possess the qualities of character and intellect that will be required of our next president?
Do you really think they are likely to appoint the bench of supporting talent we will need to effectively tackle so many crises on so many fronts?
Tuesday will very likely have an enormous impact on determining the fate of our nation, the fate of our descendants, and (particularly considering the clock ticking on global warming, over and above all these other crises) the very fate of our planet.
Who in their right mind could possibly believe that McCain and Palin - completely out of practical ideas, surrounded by nothing but corporate lobbyists on the one side, and ideological extremists on the other, and obviously out of their depth administratively - are up to the challenges we face?
Particularly considering all the ways that the very election of McCain and Palin will likely exacerbate our myriad crises?
Make no mistake: if McCain and Palin are declared winners after Tuesday, there is a real likelihood of appalling consequences, and no one on earth will be able to escape from them.
This is what should be keeping those people wearing the "Joe the Plumber" buttons up at night.