Looking at MSNBC vote totals for California I noticed that just under 10 million votes had been counted. The California Field Poll was estimating a record turnout of 13.6 million voters on election day.
I suspect voter turnout was not as large as anticipated but this discrepancy means that millions of California votes have probably not been reported yet. My guess is that at least 2 million votes have not yet been reported and the total could reach to over 3 million and even 3.5 million if there was a record turnout.
I spoke with an official of the California Secretary of State's office and she verified that only semi-official totals are available for mail-in or absentee ballots whatever that means. I was told that considerably more absentee/mail-in vote totals would be available by tomorrow but that individual counties have 28 days to report their final totals. Over 6 million people were expected to vote absentee/mail-in so it's entirely possible quite a large number of votes have not been reported for California.
More over the fold.
Either California's turnout was way below what was anticipated or at least a couple million votes have not yet been reported for the Golden State. If voter turnout did reach 13.6 million as anticipated by the California Field Poll then more than 3 million voted have not yet been counted.
I don't think this will change the results for Prop 8 since absentee/mail-in votes have at times trended more conservative in California but who knows for sure. As I recall Al Gore did really well with absentee California votes in 2000.
Some really close races could still turn in California. Tom McClintock refuses to accept victory in the 4th Congressional district and outstanding provisional and absentee ballots appear to be the reason.
And last I looked the redistricting measure Prop 11 had a fairly slim lead which could still be defeated when all absentee/mail-in votes are counted.
The big problem is that some absentee/mail-in votes have been counted but I could not find out what parts of the state have not yet counted all their mail-in absentee ballots. So I have no idea if more conservative or more liberal parts of the state have the most outstanding uncounted ballots.
Perhaps I am overstating things here. Help from fellow Californians would be greatly apppreciated. But seeing a reported vote total of under 10 million votes when around 13.5 million votes were expected to be cast coupled with my conversation with the Secretary of State's office makes me think a lot of California votes have not yet been counted.
If anyone can confirm what I am reporting please post here. And if I am completely off here please feel free to post here and explain why. I just want to get to the bottom of this.
P.S. I also had a very important last thought. The California vote does not become official until mid-December. It seems to me until the vote becomes official same sex marriage is still legal in California. So until then gay couples should still be able to get married. I would think only a court order could stop gay marriages until the vote becomes final. And with so many absentee/mail-in votes possibly still uncounted I would think California courts would be reluctant to weigh in on the matter at this point in time. If I'm wrong about this please post right away. I don't want to give gay couples false hope. On the other hand, if gay marriages can still be performed this information needs to go viral.