I may not be the brightest bulb in the closet but I do follow politics and occasionally have a good point or two.
Prior to Barack Obama's convention in Denver, Obama was basically tied with John McCain. In some polls Obama trailed. I also know that both parties historically receive about 5-10 point bounces from their political conventions. Therefore Obama would leave Denver with about a 6 point lead and McCain would leave Minneapolis either back in a tie or with a slim lead. This was the way it was going to be regardless of whether McCain picked Romney, Palin, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Lieberman, or Joe the Plumber.
So how did John McCain go from a dead heat to a landslide loser in just 2 months? How did a man with his impressive war hero biography, a man seen as moderate by large numbers of Americans, a man who would have defeated Al Gore handily in 2000, lose in a landslide to a first term Senator from Illinois? The answer is Sarah Palin.
Palin did to many independents and Republicans what some people back in the 1960s did to Democrats and independents. Stated in fewer words Palin made Democrats out of people who would normally vote Republican. Lucky for Democrats this shall linger for a while.
Think for a moment if the ticket was Romney/Palin. Would Obama have won by 7 points? The answer is no, he'd have won by 17 or so.
Also think for a moment if McCain had chosen a Lieberman or a Pawlenty. Would Obama have won? Probably. Would he have won by the 7 point landslide? Probably not.
So if the Republicans want to make Sarah Palin the face of the party and nominate her in 2012 then 7 points will look like a squeaker. Obama could win all 50 states.