He was closer than anybody I've seen, in guessing the final outcome of the 2008 election.
He estimated an EV Margin of 364-174, and a popular vote margin of 53-46, and with that one Nebraska Obama Win, the final outcome (so far) is 365-173, with a 53-46% popular vote margin.
Dr. Wang is now looking over at the remaining 3 senate races in Alaska, Minnesota, and Georgia, with a curious eye.
The power of polls: a weapon against fraud? November 7th, 2008, 10:52pm by Sam Wang
In a radio interview on Wednesday, I pointed out that averaged pre-election polls were very good predictors of final outcomes. Indeed, they are an underappreciated defense against fraud. I’d go so far as to suggest that polling could be helpful in resolving the Alaska Senate race.
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If the controversy persists, one possible answer is to commission a post-election poll. The poll could be quite simple: a question to find out if the person voted; a question about how they voted in the Presidential race, to make sure the sample is representative; and a question about whether they voted for Begich or Stevens. This would probably identify any margin for Begich of a few points or greater. It’s something for activists to consider doing.
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