Just some musings and questions on what to expect on Tuesday from the Presidential and Senatorial races in Georgia.
I've been trying to kick the math around in my head for Tuesday, and I'm coming up with this for the Presidential race:
Demographic group % of electorate Obama %
White 65% 27%
Black 30% 95%
Other 5% 75%
The above is what I think Obama needs to win on Tuesday. Those numbers would give him around 49.6% of the vote, which should be enough to win, given that Barr will probably pull at least 1%.
Has anyone seen data that might alter those numbers? I know early voting has a higher percentage of A-A vote, but that percentage will drop some after Tuesday. The higher A-A percentage is, the better for Obama (and Martin), of course. "Other" in this case is Hispanic, Asian-American, Indian, everyone else. The only data I've seen on that would indicate Obama is doing well there too.
As for Martin, I've looked at past races when there was a Presidential candidate and a Senatorial candidate at the same time, and they tend to get very similar numbers. The race factor could change that this time, but I think Martin won't pull as many African-American voters, while pulling a little more from white voters, so I'm not sure that won't be a wash.
Where I'm at, north Georgia, if Obama is getting above 25%, I think he's on his way to victory. If less than 20%, probably not.
The key counties will be Cobb and Gwinnett, I think. I'm betting that's where a lot of the tightening has been taking place.
Is it realistic for Obama to get over 80% in Dekalb and Clayton? Over 70% in Fulton?
Obama should also do quite well in SW Georgia, East Georgia (Athens and surrounding counties to the east) and along the coast. McCain will win in the north and south by large margins, but there aren't any huge population centers there.
Again, I'm thinking Cobb County, more than any other, might be the key. (Gwinnett too) Can Obama get about 45% of the vote there?