A few weeks ago, Kos wrote a great piece on the competitive races for 2010. I would like to follow up with a prediction diary on what I think will actually happen and what the Senate will look like after the election on Nov. 2nd, 2010.
First, let's start with the Democratic seats that are up for reelection that are Safe Seats:
Blanche Lincoln - Arkansas
Barbara Boxer - California
Ken Salazar - Colorado
Chris Dodd - Connecticut
Evan Bayh - Indiana
Harry Reid - Nevada
Byron Dorgan - North Dakota
Ron Wyden - Oregon
Patrick Leahy - Vermont
Patty Murray - Washington
Russ Feingold - Wisconsin
I do not believe the Repulicans can mount anything resembling a serious challenge to these Democratic Senators in 2010.
Now, let's turn to the Democratic seats that might possibly be at risk due to retirement, or other reasons.
? - Illinois (Obama's seat)
Barbara Mikulksi - Maryland
Daniel Inouye - Hawaii
I actually don't think whoever replaces Obama will necessarily be at risk, but it is simply impossible to know that right now. Daniel Inouye will be 86 in 2010 so we don't know if he is going to retire or not. Should he decide not to retire, it's unlikely that the Republicans would mount much of a challenge against him.
Barbara Mikulski will be 74 in 2010 and it's unclear whether she has considered stepping down. Probably not, as she is one of the most popular politicians in Maryland. In fact, before this election, Mikulski held the record for most votes ever received for any political candidate in Maryland: 1,504,691. (Now, Barack Obama holds the Maryland record at around 1,597,000 - a figure which will increase once all the absentee and provisional ballots are counted). She is also the first female Senator from Maryland and is currently the female Senator in the Senate with the most seniority, having served since 1987. Even if she steps down, I still see the Democrats holding the seat.
Now, let's turn to the Republican seats that will be up for reelection. I concur with Kos, who says that Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, South Carolina, and Utah will be off the table, but I disagree with him about South Dakota. I have a sneaking feeling that we'll see a competitive race there, particularly if Obama's approval ratings are high. I also disagree with the idea that Tom Coburn might be vulnerable in Oklahoma. I don't see that as a realistic pickup.
Here are the Republicans who might be at risk:
John McCain - Arizona
Richard Shelby - Alabama
Mel Martinez - Florida
Sam Brownback (retiring) - Kansas
Jim Bunning - Kentucky
David Vitter - Louisiana
Kit Bond - Missouri
Judd Gregg - New Hampshire
Richard Burr - North Carolina
George Voinovich - Ohio
Arlen Specter - Pennsylvania
Of these, Richard Shelby, John McCain, and Kit Bond are probably the safest. Shelby has a 61% approval rating, according to Survey USA (10/23). However, I think Janet Napolitano could give McCain a run for his money. Kit Bond will be going up against a thoroughly rejuvenated Democratic Party in Missouri. I don't see Richard Shelby being unseated in Alabama though.
Jim Bunning is nuts and I imagine the GOP leaders will probably urge him to step down. If he runs again (and it looks like he might) I predict he will get crushed. I also predict David Vitter will get crushed.
Can Judd Gregg hang onto his seat in New Hampshire? He is a moderate Republican in a generally moderate state. I suspect he'll hang on in a close race. Kos has floated the idea of Rep. Paul Hodes as a likely contender for the seat.
I suspect that Kit Bond and Mel Martinez will probably hang onto their seats.
That leaves Richard Burr, George Voinovich, and Arlen Specter. Specter will be 80 in 2010 and, sadly, is dealing with health issues. Voinovich is a somewhat moderate Republican in a state where his base is anything but moderate. His approval rating is just 51%, according to Survey USA (10/23). I agree with Kos when he states that Tim Ryan will run for this seat. Richard Burr will be facing a hugely expanded Democratic base, owing to the Obama campaign's efforts throughout North Carolina. Democrats currently enjoy a registration advantage of 867,000 and almost 14 percentage points in the Tar Heel state.
The vacating of Sam Brownback's spot leaves an interesting opening for Democrats. Kathleen Sebelius has a job approval rating of 62% (versus 33% neg.), according to Survey USA (10/22). I think she would be a shoo-in should she decide to go for it, but that would leave the Governorship up for grabs. We shall see.
Ultimately, here are my predictions:
I do not believe that the Democrats will lose any of the seats for which they are up for reelection, even if Daniel Inouye decides to step down.
Democratic seats: 0 changes
I believe that the Democrats will take away 4 seats from Republicans:
David Vitter - Louisiana
Jim Bunning - Kentucky
and two of the following:
Sam Brownback (empty seat) - Kansas
Arlen Specter - Pennsylvania
Richard Burr - North Carolina
George Voinovich - Ohio
John McCain - Arizona
Republican seats: +4 for the Democrats
One sort of intangible element in all this is the idea that the fate of our Senate races will be tied to Obama's approval rating. If the economy rebounds before 2010, the Democratic Congress and Obama will (and should) receive full credit. I predict that this will take place and that we will witness the first filibuster-proof majority in the Senate in my lifetime. If another Democratic wave happens, we could see the Democrats pick up as many as 8 seats in the Senate. That would be astounding.
I also predict that Al Franken will win the recount against Norm Coleman and that we will pick up either Alaska or Georgia, but not both. That would mean that, according to my prediction, we would have 63 seats in the U.S. Senate (still counting Lieberman as a Democrat - for now) after the 2010 elections.
Here is a link to those Survey USA tracking polls:
http://www.surveyusa.com/...