Okay, this is something of a vanity diary. But I wanted to make a permanent, public record of my predictions for the election.
And yes, I know this is a vanity diary but let me justify it by saying that I'm about to drive over 2 hours to knock on doors in Indianapolis. This is my indulgenge. And I actually have put some time into how I make predictions and a decent track record from the primaries.
I did a few prediction diaries during the primaries. The highlight was when I guessed every single Super Tuesday contest correct and came damn close on many of the margins of victory. Indeed, I went on a streak of over 30 contests where I only got one wrong.
The lowlight? Well I guess that would have to be the brilliant diary entitled "Obama's VP Pick" which began. "All I know for sure is that it won't be Joe Biden."
So with that warning in mind....are my predictions.
PRESIDENT
Obama wins, 349 to 189.
Popular vote:
Obama 51.91
McCain 45.53,
Barr 1.81
Nader 0.37
Guy Even Scarier than Barr 0.25
Cynthia McKinney (aka Woman Even scarier than the guy who's even scarier than Barr) 0.19
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
I think that Obama will flip (in order of confidence):
Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Missouri.
And the two that I have "just slipping away" are Indiana and North Carolina. (I think Obama will split IN and MO...I'm really not sure which one will go our way but I'm leaning MO.)
I have Georgia and North Dakot each being 3 point races, but holding for McCain. The only blue states that McCain makes close are NH (4) and PA (5).
My most pessimistic scenario has Obama winning 290. (Which means that if McCain pulls off two triple bank shots in NH & PA, he could win-that's the 3.2% scenario that keeps rearing its head on 538.com like so many Vladimir Putins.
My most optimistic scenario adds Indiana, NC and ND for 378 votes. I just don't think GA or AZ are realistic.
CONGRESS
I am in some ways less optimistic about the congressional races. I think the split government argument will put some Obama voters into the corner of their Republican congressional incumbent. So I say +12 in the house and +7 in the senate.
Specifically in the Senate, NM, CO and VA are locks. I also think NC and AK are close too it. That makes plus six.
Just like with IN and MO, I expect a split in NH/OR. My hunch is that we're more likely to win NH because of Shaheen's resume. So I'll put OR back in the Red (there's bound to be one dissapointment that night and I think the Republican who ran on Obama's platform is probably the best place to start.)
I don't think we'll pick off MN. MS seems like way too much of a stretch. GA also seems likely to stay with the incumbent, but if I could be wrong about anything in this diary, it would be that.
Okay, I'm off to go meet some Hoosiers. Please think of me and try to do some phone banking at half-time at least. I'm giving up an entire NFL Sunday! (Full disclosure: my team, the Steelers play on MNF.)