First off, lets assume the races break the way the polls are now, with whoever is ahead at pollster.com winning in the senate races.
There are 4 races rated as toss ups there; Georgia, kentucky, Minnesota and Alaska... Dems get Alaska and Minnesota. GOP holds Kentucky and Georgia. ASSUME THE POSTION (as Mr. Wuhl says)
NOW!!! Who remember's 94, when senators switched parties (Sessions from Alabama and the guy from Colorado) Who would switch from Republicans to Democratic? Look at anotherthing Chuck Todd said in that article:
*** Southern discomfort: While everyone is trend-spotting demographics and geography through the Obama prism, don't forget to examine the state of the Republican Party through those same lenses. In the House, for instance, the grim picture for the GOP is on full display. According to one Cook Report estimate by House editor David Wasserman, the GOP -- in a worst-case scenario -- could have as few as 16 members left in the Northeast (versus 79 for the Dems). In the South, the GOP lead in House seats could be in single digits, 74-68. In the Midwest, 61-39 could be the House seat split. And finally, out West, powered by the Dem strength on the Pacific coast, the Dem lead could 66-32. Step back and look at those numbers: Nearly half of the House GOP caucus may be rooted in the South. Just as it wasn't healthy for the Democratic Party when it appeared rooted in just the Northeast and the Left coast, neither is it good for the GOP to be seen as simply a regional political party
Now, he was talking about the house overall, which would lead to defections I have no doubt. But lets look at the senate. Where are these 41 Republican Senators?? (lets assume who ever leads at pollster.com today, wins the race. So we get Franken and Begich, they keep Wicker, Chambliss and McConnell)
NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST
ME,MA,NH,VT,RI,CN,NY,PA,NJ; DEMS-14 GOP-4
Maine: Collins, Snowe
New Hampshire: Gregg
Pennsylvania: Spector
MIDWEST/RUST BELT
OH,IN,MI,WI,IL,MN; DEMS-10 GOP-2
Ohio: Voinovich
Indiana: Lugar
GREAT PLAINS
IA,MO,SD,ND,NE,KS,OK,TX GOP-10 DEMS-6
Iowa: Grassley
Missouri: Bond
South Dakota: Thune
Nebraska: Johanns
Kansas: Roberts, Brownback
Oklahoma: Inhofe, Coburn
Texas: Hutchison, Cornyn
SOUTH/APPALACHIA
KY,TN,NC,SC,GA,FL,AL,MS,LA,AR GOP-15 DEMS-5
Louisiana: Vitter
North Carolina: Burr
Kentucky: Bunning, McConnell
Tennessee: Corker, Alexander
South Carolina: Graham, DeMint
Georgia: Isakson, Chambliss
Florida: Martinez
Alabama: Sessions, Shelby
Mississippi: Cochran, Wicker
MOUTIAN WEST
MT,ID,UT,CO,AZ,NM,NV,WY,AK GOP-11 DEMS-7
Colorado: Allard
Wyoimng: Enzi, Barrasso
Idaho: Risch, Crapo
Utah: Hatch, Bennett
Arizona: McCain, Kyl
Alaska: Murkowski
Nevada: Ensign
PACIFIC
CA.OR,WA,HI DEMS-8 GOP-0
MID-ATLANTIC
VA,MD,DE,WV DEMS-8 GOP-0
I put the Mid-Atlantic at the end, cause like the Pacific coast, it was a shutout. But what do we see here??
I'll let you all decide, but a few things I observed:
The New England GOP are all moderate R's
The Plains region is ONLY a GOP look since I added Texas and Oklahoma to them instead of the south. Take away those 4, and it's even 6-6.
The Mountain region is trending blue, and I suspect that AZ and CO will give us the next switching seats. But let's face it, Utah is..... Utah.
The south is the part that gets me? Let's move Florida out since it's a retirement community for the people who are from Cleveland. (that's why there's a playground in Orlando, Florida for the grandkids) but add Texas and Oklahoma due to Bible Belt affiliation, the score then becomes:
GOP-18, DEMS-4
(those 4 being Landrieu in Louisiana, Hagan in North Carolina (assuming she wins), and Lincoln and Pryor in Arkansas.)
Add one more cavet, Arkansas is an anomoly as Maine is the other way, and assume North Carolina is trending more like Virginia than South Carolina... and guess what folks.
The GOP is a regional, and religous conservative party. The fiscal conservatives from New England and the Midwest (Gregg, Snowe, Collins, Specter, Voinovich, Lugar.... might want to consider coming over to the D side after the election to save thier own hide.
UPDATE:
Something else I thought of... going down the Texas and Oklahoma to the south theory;
Add Utah to this mix, as well as the 2 Kansas Senators who are very much fundamentalists. figuring they will have 41 Senators, that means that 22 of them are basing political ideals from Bible based areas.
Now are there some good fiscal conservatives and small government conservatives? Shelby in Alabama is an old school fiscal conservative, along with being a bible thumper, so he does deserve credit there. But 22 out of 41, and remember that the Wyoming, Idaho and Allard out of Colorado are more Libritarian(sp) than bible thumpers....
Could we see a split like the Dems had in the 40's and 50's with the Dixiecrats and such? And isn't it ironic that it's always theF'n south that starts all the shit??