Which is 382-156.
I expect the popular vote to be around 54-44.
This is not my best case or my worst case.
My upsets/close calls:
GA has a high AA population that, if it turns out in record numbers, will make Obama outperform polls by a good 4-5 points. Bob Barr will peel a few votes from McCain now that McCain probably won't win anyway. This could very well go McCain, though.
MT will have a similar effect with Ron Paul being on the ballot. If this election were "close", no one would be voting for Ron Paul. McCain will lose enough voters to Paul to lose. This also could go McCain.
MO is a state with traditionally low black turnout. So polls being about even suggest an Obama win -- he should get three points based on AA turnout alone. A slim chance of a McCain win.
OH has one weird Mason-Dixon outlier that says McCain is ahead -- and that's before the massive Obama rally. Everyone else has him winning. I don't think McCain has that much of a shot, but it's possible.
NC will have higher than expected youth and AA turnout making a small Obama lead a fairly comfortable win.
FL has been consistent for Obama in the polls. I wouldn't be surprised if someone gives McCain a lead in the polls, but it's not going to materialize. I don't think McCain has much of a chance. (You're safe to ignore the M-D showing it close.)
NV will be a close win as the polls suggest. McCain does have some potential to win here. (Feel free to ignore the M-D.)
IN undecideds will break heavily for McCain -- it's a Republican state. It does have a decent AA population that usually doesn't turn out and in which Obama has a smaller lead than he will on election day, but not enough.
ND, same as IN, only no AAs, so even better for McCain.
AZ is a bridge too far.
PA, VA, IA, CO, NH, NM are not going to be close.
Go this excellent Kos Scorecard to make your own map!
(Don't be surprised if I tweak this over the next few hours.)
Here's my "worst case":
(Yes, I'm pretty comfortable with FL.)