In a post on FiveThirtyEight.com today, Nate Silver, polling guru, predicts that Al Franken will beat Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) in the recount by 27 votes. Silver's analyses of the statistics from the Minnesota Secretary of State website suggest that Franken is in a stronger position than indicated previously.
Silver finds that in precincts with fewer challenged votes, Franken is doing better than Coleman. Franken's stalled momentum appears to be a statistical artifact of the increasing percentage of challenged ballots!
More below the flip...
Silver finds that in precincts where little to no ballots were challenged, Franken picked up a total of 28 votes. Precincts where only one or two ballots were challenged, Franken picked up a total of 31 and 32 votes, respectively.
In precincts where 5-9 or 10+ ballots were challenged, Franken lost 42 and 15 votes, respectively. This leads Silver to project using regression analysis that Franken will win by 27 votes once the challenged ballots are adjudicated.
Now, if Silver uses a multivariate analysis to control for both Franken and Coleman challenged ballots, Franken fares even better:
(Note: it is also possible to build a multivariate regression model that attempts to solve for both Franken and Coleman's totals in an absolute sense, rather than Franken's gain relative to Coleman. This multivariate model produces a slightly more optimistic result for Franken, suggesting that he will gain 254 votes statewide and Coleman will lose 12, producing a net swing of 268 votes toward Franken.)
Thus, once all is adjudicated and done, we will probably be looking at Sen.-Elect Al Franken (D-MN) and our 59th Senator, including Independents Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT).