Yes, that's right. I'm hoping for a one-term Vice Presidency for Joe Biden. Now, now, I have nothing against the Vice President-Elect. In fact, I liked the choice when Obama made it. A lot. And I still do. But I don't want to see Obama-Biden running for the Presidency in 2012. Some have suggested a Biden move to Secretary of State at that time, which I think is a very intriguing thought. But even if there's no room for Biden at Foggy Bottom, I still hope to see someone else on the ticket four years hence.
Let's talk about that, shall we?
WHY
Obviously, because Joe Biden will turn 74 years old between Election Day 2016 and Inauguration Day 2017. That in itself makes it rather unlikely he'll even be a Presidential candidate eight years from now. And it would be useful to have a Vice President ready to assume the mantle of outgoing-President Obama's successor.
HOW
Now, I'd like to note that winning election to the Presidency has been a rare event for a sitting Vice President. Since Vice President Martin Van Buren won the 1836 Presidential election, only one sitting Vice President has managed to replicate the feat - George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988. However, the most instructive history is the most recent history, and if we look at the four Vice Presidents who have been the nominees for President in the last half century, we see one victorious - the aforementioned Bush in 1988 - and three who were very competitive. In 1960, Vice President Nixon was barely beaten by Senator Kennedy in the popular vote. And while the more relevant Electoral College margin was wider, it was not a landslide. Nixon was a few closely-contested states from a victory, or at least throwing the election to the House. Eight years later, Nixon won a more impressive Electoral College victory though the popular vote margin was less than 1%, indicating that Vice President Humphrey was still very competitive. And in 2000, of course, we see that Vice President Gore ran a very competitive campaign.
The point is that a sitting Vice President can most definitely win a Presidential election. As such, President Obama can play a large role in selecting the Democratic nominee for President in 2016, and thereby quite possibly determining our subsequent President. And the Vice Presidency is an excellent place for a Governor (especially) or even a Senator to acquire national security/foreign policy experience and gravitas.
WHO
Who? Good question! We all have our favorites. Electability is a factor. Political stances are factors. You and I will differ on what we prefer in a candidate. But I have a few candidates in mind. So let's see who I like!
Janet Napolitano or Brian Schweitzer
These are my big two! I've written elsewhere that we do not need to pick a candidate solely because of their region. Yet their region can be an attribute, and the West - especially the Interior West - is where the future growth of the Democratic Party lies. I love both of these candidates! After a term at Homeland Security, Napolitano could ease right into the Vice Presidency. And Governor Schwetzer's second term as Governor will conveniently end in 2012. I'm slightly biased towards the Arizona Governor, but I think Schwetzer might be a slightly better candidate. Either way, I would love the choice!
Hillary Clinton
Okay, moving on past my absolute favorites, we have the 2008 runner-up, Senator Clinton. I like Senator Clinton. I don't like the sound of President Clinton, however. Much of this has to do with the fact that she's married to someone who has a lifelong habit of making trouble and thereby squandering political opportunity. That's a shame, but it does tarnish her shine, in my opinion. As such - and for other reasons, frankly - I would prefer not to see Obama-Clinton in 2012. That said, I know many here will disagree with me, so I thought I'd offer it up as a possibility.
Claire McCaskill
A strong supporter of Senator Obama during the primaries, Senator McCaskill looks to be one of President Obama's staunchest allies in the Senate. And what's not to like? She's been fantastic on all manner of military issues, from veterans' affairs to DoD spending. She's been Feingoldian(!) on spending such as earmarks. She's from Middle America, a swing state that I expect Obama to place in his column in 2012 as he expands his electoral majority. I think Senator McCaskill may be the likeliest of the names I'm mentioning here to join President Obama for his re-election bid.
Russ Feingold
Ah, Russ Feingold. I lived in Wisconsin for one election cycle, 1992, and I had the pleasure of voting for Russ Feingold that year as he was dispatching Senator Bob Kasten. Nine years later he voted against the Patriot Act - the only Senator to do so. That alone is an enormous testament to the man. And though he voted for the odious DOMA, he has since come out for full recognition of same-sex marriage. I think Obama-Feingold would be a fantastic ticket in 2012.
Mark Warner
Truth be told, I've never felt the allure of Warner that so many of you feel. I'm glad he's a United States Senator, and I mention him here simply because he seems to be a very popular electoral powerhouse from a state that seems to perfectly represent the shift from Red to Blue that is going on in so many places in the United States. I also get the sense that he's destined for bigger and better things and, since he's a former Governor and a soon-to-be Senator, there's not much else that defines "bigger" and "better" than being on the Presidential ticket!
Someone Else
Who knows who will suddenly splash onto the national scene during Senator Obama's first term? A Governor we least expect? A Senator we don't currently suspect? A cabinet member, someone in the House, a general, or ... ? Who knows? I'm sure you'll tell me in the comments, though! Or you can write your own damn diary ... ;)