According to PPP, Obama may well have already won the election. How is this possible you might ask? It all hinges on the state of Nevada. The pundits have been throwing out all the possible scenarios where John McCain wins this election. The one I worry about the most is a repeat of 2000. I'm not terribly worried about Pennsylvania. What I worry about is Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and Florida. These are all states that Al Gore lost in 2000. If Obama is going to have any problems tomorrow night, it will be with those formally red and purple states. I don't need to get into it too deeply because all of you know, the Gore states plus New Hampshire plus either Virginia or Colorado will win the election. It seems as if early voting in Nevada has already brought Obama across the finish line. Early voting in Nevada has brought most of the people to the polls well before election day and they have commandingly selected Barack Obama to be the next President. There just are not enough late voters to destroy Obama's commanding lead.
According to PPP: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Most of the state’s voters report already having cast their ballots. With those folks Obama has a more commanding 57-43 lead. McCain is up 57-38 with those who have not yet voted but plan to on election day.
It looks like Nevada is going to complete a Mountain West trio of victories for Barack Obama along with Colorado and New Mexico," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "The lead Obama has been able to build up among early voters in the state is virtually insurmountable.
Where does that leave us? Assuming PPP is correct then John McCain and Barack Obama at this moment are probably tied in the electoral college. Of course something crazy like PA going for McCain would change everything, but that is a pretty long shot potential outcome. What we have to worry about is the close states of NV, CO, OH, FL and VA. That easier path now seems closed. I may seem presumptuous with this assessment, but I am going to sleep easier tonight knowing this.